Possible Explanation for A Conservative Meme about COVID-19

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If you examine the following article you will find a discussion of a Republican doctor who claims that the CDC is grossly inflating COVID-19 death statistics.  Are the Republicans just making this stuff up or is there even the slightest reason to believe it? So I have a theory about where this baseless story came from which I present here. Its total speculation on my part so dont go around saying this is what happened.  I am just thinking out loud.

First the article.  The doctor in question is midway through the story.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/montana-extreme-trump/2021/10/22/0f82afbc-0037-11ec-a664-4f6de3e17ff0_story.html

 

Now for my theory.  Did you know that we dont know how many people die of the flu each year?  Well we dont and the CDC admits its statistics are wrong.  There are a number of reasons for this and they are not because of bad people doing bad things, unfortunately because that (bad people) would be easier to fix.  Here are two examples of why the statistics understate the real numbers.  In the first scenario, someone goes to the hospital with bad flu and dies of cardiac failure.  Now, did that person die of a heart attack or did that person die from the flu? What do you put in the "cause of death" field on the form?   In the second scenario, someone gets bad flu and dies at home and nothing is reported because the person was old, and got sick, and it doesnt seem important to report the cause of death in a way that the CDC can capture. Maybe the cause of death is reported as "complications of old age".  In this case, its quite possible that "flu" was never formally diagnosed. The flu has been with us a long time, most people think it is the same as the "common cold".  It just doesnt get reported.

But in the case of COVID which is very different from the flu and much more dangerous (at least until the really bad flu like 1918 comes around again) the CDC wanted to make sure that the cases of COVID-19 got reported and the cause of death correctly attributed.  So my guess is that they sent out information fliers requesting local doctors and hospitals to be particularly diligent and if there were multiple probable causes of death, to make sure that COVID-19 is listed.  And of course our nutty Republicans who are not too smart saw this as a conspiracy to inflate the figures.  

I dont know if this is even close to what happened.  But I would like to believe that our Republicans are just stupid and paranoid and wrong but not deliberately malicious about distorting information that can and does cause the death of otherwise clueless people.  That would be negligent, criminally negligent.  I hope therefore that the Republicans are just wrong.  Maybe they just heard a rumor made up by some paranoid nut like the Trump moron and just took it at face value and repeated it.  Maybe the CDC did nothing at all.  Maybe we will never know why the Republicans believe the nutty things they believe.

Vegetarian Oatmeal Banana Muffin Things

Not vegan unless butter substitute is used.

4 bananas 

2 tsp vanilla

1 pinch salt

1 measuring unit brown sugar

2 units oatmeal

2 units flour

1 tsp cinnamon

1 tsp cloves

2 tsp baking powder

3 tablespoons flaxseed meal

1/2 of an orange, juiced

1/2 unit water 

3 tablespoons water (for flaxseed meal)

3/4 stick of butter or substitute.

Prepare flaxseed meal 15 minutes in advance with tablespoons of water in separate container.  Combine everything in a blender or food processor until completely mixed.  If consistency is not right add oatmeal and flour in equal amounts.  Bake in small cake pan(s) (see picture) at 375 for 18 minutes.  Serve warm and with butter if appropriate.

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Incident in Westlake Village

So I am on my back, breathing nitrous oxide, while the dentist uses a hammer and chisel on my teeth, unable to talk, barely even mumble, and the assistants are discussing Halloween movies, and in particular Nightmare Before Christmas. I try to talk but the dentist / torturer tells me to lie still or I will regret it, and when it is over and I can almost talk although its more of a mumble I try to tell them that friends of mine worked on the movie, and that I consider the opening to be among the best openings of any film, animated or live, and how proud I was of them. And one of the assistants says that she was born the month the movie came out and I thought to myself, what should it be, pistols at dawn, or should I just commit ritual suicide right here. Pardon me, but could I borrow that very sharp knife? Thank you. Goodbye cruel world!

Kathleen Quaife Hodge ( ? -- 2021 )

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It seems completely impossible and unfair, but Kathleen Quaife Hodge passed away suddenly in her sleep a few days ago.  I am heartbroken.  She had been in a relationship with Mike Cedeno for 9 years or so and they were going to get married.

I met Kathleen at Roto Effects of America and we hired her as a freelance animator for the motion platform ride "Journey to the 4th Dimension" for Harper Films and Landmark Entertainment. 

The Magnolia is no Garden of Eden

It may look like a garden, but its really more of a snake pit.  Its not the paper thin walls, or the windows that have been painted over so many times that they will never open, or the termites, or the weird (unwritten) rules, or the obsolete electrical system, or the baroque legacy gas system where you are as likely to be paying for your neighbor's utilities as your own.  Its not the suicides of which there have been two in recent years.  Its the people.  The smile to your face, stab you in the back people that is the problem here.  The emotionally-challenged woman who thinks that every man lusts for her calves and complains about invasion of privacy when no such thing has occurred.  Or the neighbor who sang Joni Mitchell  songs at night whenever she got drunk (which was every night) but complained to management that I used the telephone.  I didnt appreciate it when Management threw her out with 3 days notice, I think that she deserved more compassion than that, even if she had stabbed me in the back.  But by far the worse part of this was the new landlady, one of those who is scared of computers and doesnt know much about them, and is willing to say the most appalling things in writing apparently too stupid to realize that she was letting both herself and the Magnolia in for an astonishing lawsuit that they would lose, if I did lawsuits, which I dont.  And neither does my patron, whose guest I was.  And so, may I advise you, dear reader, if you are considering the Magnolia to save yourself some trouble and go elsewhere.  Life is too short.

Who Has the Best Failed State?

I could use some help figuring out what we believe the long term deaths and wounded statistics of the Chernobyl disaster. Chernobyl is the gold standard by which to measure the failure of a government to cope with a crisis and the long term effects of their incompetence. But its hard to get good numbers of the long term deaths and wounded of Chernobyl. There are reasons for this beyond mere suppression of the facts for political purposes (like we find in this country). They may be trying to avoid despair which causes death through other self inflicted wounds such as tobacco and alcohol. If you believe you are going to die of radiation poisoning anyway why not smoke another pack of cigarettes a day and drink more vodka?

I am pretty sure though that America and a few other countries like Brazil can proudly say that their failed governments have been much more incompetent and caused many more deaths than the USSR and successor states. In fact, the Republican response may still be killing a Chernobyls worth of their own citizens every 100 days. Oddly, these deaths of the last six months are restricted almost entirely to the unvaccinated, who are almost all Republicans. This will not affect elections since voter suppression and the supreme court's destruction of voter rights have the intent and effect of delegitimizing elections and installing more right wing thugs like Trump and is self perpetuating. But the reports I have read suggest that the USSR and successor countries have devoted and still devote huge resources to social and medical welfare to people in the various affected regions even when it is likely that they were not affected. Our country, with its corrupt right wing judiciary, throws people on the street if they are 3 days late on rent. I had to hear a lot of shit about how bad communism was and how great western democracy is. Not so sure about the former but about the latter I can be quite sure. We laugh at people saying that under Socialism an NKRP reactor (or whatever) cant explode. Well in this country we have trump and the moron republicans (there are only republicans, the people who oppose them and a third group which is passive) saying the virus is a hoax, that the democrats are using it to defeat trump, who is the chosen one, that the virus is just bad flu, that quinine water or horse tenderizer will keep you from getting bad virus, and that there has never been a time when any american has been forced to exercise basic public health protocols (because the people saying it are too stupid to know about the history in this country of cholera, yellow fever, basic sewage, speed limits and water controls, etc). The Republicans did this, and caused what will be no less than a million unnecessary deaths (we are very close to that number now).

Shouldnt I be hearing a lot of people talking about the failures of the western democracy and capitalism?

 

 

 

Commentary on September 11th

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I was in NYC on September 11th. By far the worst part was not that day, but the months afterwards as my fellow NYers put up posters acknowledging their loved one was missing. Literally everyone I knew in NY either knew someone in the two towers who died or was one person removed. Second, it is probably not well known outside of NY or maybe I am wrong about this: but no one actually knows how many people died in the collapse of the towers. Why is that, you may ask, its because there is illegal immigration in all areas of american life, and the financial industries are far from immune and when something bad happens, the family is not going to go to the police only to have ICE show up in a week or month to deport them. Finally, you make your guess at how many people died, then make a guess as to their average body weight, then realize that the clean up crews had to remove that much dead body parts that was layered through the wreckage. Do the math. You will be surprised.

Dreams and Visions

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I had three dreams last night, each with friends who have passed away.

Today my Instacart delivery person was MacKensie, maybe 24, with tight leopard shorts.

I am off medication until tomorrow.

A Farewell to Scones

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I dont know where this will all end up, but clearly scones, homemade or otherwise, are mostly carbohydrates of one form or another.  And that cant be on my current diet, the diet I am on when I basically die.  I need to lose weight.  Period.

 

Bye bye scones.

Intelligence, Ambiguity and the SONY Hack

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[Since I wrote this blog post, I came across evidence that maybe the NSA does actually know what happened. See https://www.nytimes.com/2015/01/19/world/asia/nsa-tapped-into-north-korean-networks-before-sony-attack-officials-say.html]

I am slowly going to get around to the issue of who perpetrated the SONY hack. I am pretty sure that whoever it was executed a fishing expedition and that Amy Pascal was a victim but not an original target. Whoever this was hoped there would be good stuff in the emails, and of course they started from the top down, and released a bunch of stuff and hoped that some of it would cause trouble and they were right. The first rule is to not put anything in email you would not want to see in the NY Times. Yesterday I read what was supposedly the supposedly horrible content of the Pascal/Rudin dialog about Obama and some actor, and you know, it's not enough in my mind to have caused this level of reaction. What they said was that someone of a certain ethnic group likes to see positive depictions of that ethnic group in film, I think. And that a specific actor wanted money for work they wanted him to do and that they did not want to pay him. Big whoopie. So Amy goes into independent production but that does not make SONY any more or less racist. Thank goodness they were not discussing Michael Jackson. What a mess that would have been!

I had not realized that the DOJ had in fact filed a case against a mysterious Korean who N. Korea says does not exist. So while the USA may be ineffectual, and FBI Counterintelligence was not able to protect our poor, helpless SONY executives, we did step up to the plate to formally complain and so I retract my inflammatory statement that we did nothing. There isn't much they can do after the fact. The issues of N. Korea, who our government believes did this hack, see below, are complicated. We are already doing what we can short of war to rein those maniacs in. Our State Department's worst fear is that Kim is deposed and the whole sucking puddle of shit collapses and we have a real mess. We may look back in nostalgia to the days of Kim and SONY and say, "Wow, wasn't that great! We didnt know how great it was."

As outsiders to the world of intelligence, we can not really know with certainty what is going on, but if you pay attention, and watch over time, then there are things you can know, up to a point. Sometimes you may have to wait but even then it's not as if you can prove anything to everyone's satisfaction. There are classic examples here. We knew the government thought that Julius & Ethel Rosenberg were guilty but the real evidence, not the stuff presented in court, was withheld for 30 + years and that is one of the reasons that, decades later, they went public with Venona and many people still dont believe it. (1) Many cases are not brought to trial because the intelligence community is not willing to expose the evidence and by definition the sources. There are mysteries about the Ellsberg matter, mysteries that have never been resolved, that if anyone knows the answer to, they are not talking. Pretty much everyone thinks the Warren Commission was a coverup but of what? It was only recently that I finally heard a theory that I believe in... that it was a CIA fuckup but not the way most people believe. (2) But do I really know? Of course not.

N. Korea has proven to be a plucky little nation even if they are really annoying. They came this close to winning the Korean war at the beginning. They are probably behind one of the most successful counterfeiting operations in the history of counterfeiting. (3) And who can forget their recent sinking of a S. Korean destroyer? Or the assassination of a relative of Kim by secret agents? Or the fabulous operation using the Yakuza to steal from Japanese ATMs that involved a hack involving banks, special ATM cards and intense rules. (4) N. Korea has proven their capability in this area over and over again. They are a player in cybercrime and cyberwar. They have the capability to execute the SONY hack, many believe. But if not them, who?

Some believe that the hack was perpetrated by an individual or perhaps a small team of disgruntled SONY employees as an extortion plot and that the demand to withdraw the famous satirical film about a fictional Kim was just cover. I know that some cybersecurity officials believe that there is evidence that the hack was perpetrated by a state actor. These things are not all that subtle, you know. There is a level of skill and of effort over time that is found with state hacking operations in contrast to talented individuals or groups like Anonymous or private criminal groups. And generally each of these groups have a track record and leave a series of clues that indicate modus operandi.

I know that generally the DOJ does not file a case in this kind of thing unless they think they have enough evidence that can be presented in open court should it ever come to trial. But maybe they knew this would never come to trial so they decided to use this as a way to embarrass N Korea, which is basically impossible because they are shameless, but whatever. Cui bono? One could make a case for the disgruntled insiders who eventually released the material to make good their threat did it. And of course the N. Koreans could have done it and had motivation.

But do I really know, no I dont. If someone knows for sure, through unspecified intelligence sources, well I cant know about that. I havent seen the evidence and I am not qualified to evaluate it. In the absence of a plausible candidate or candidates for the insider theory, and for all I know there is such a candidate but no one is talking about it because it is defamation in the absence of good evidence, I think, then I propose that the most plausible candidate is N. Korea. I will probably never know for sure. That is the fate of most judgments or assessments that we make about intelligence matters. In the absence of a confession, and maybe not even then, we can not be sure.

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1. A pretty good description is at https://www.osti.gov/opennet/manhattan-project-history/Events/1945-present/venona.htm. But if you dont believe it, then by all means go to the NSA site on Venona and there is much more detail. There are people who to this day deny that Ethyl knew what Julius was up to which is, frankly, ridiculous. There are others who say that even if they were spies, their work did not really help the Soviets. People will believe whatever they want to believe. I would not be surprised to hear that some people believe that Venona is a fake and was made up to frame the Rosenbergs. How could I possibly know?

2. An article I read by an academic who studies the JFK assassination believes that recently released evidence shows what some people believed at the time. That the CIA knew more than they were saying and that they had been tracking Oswald in Mexico City, had tapped his phone, knew that he had visited various embassies, knew that he was up to no good. Then instead of acting, or communicating their concerns to FBI Counterintelligence, they just dropped it. And when JFK got shot by their guy, Oswald, they knew that no one would believe that they had not had a hand in it or that they could be so stupid as to not warn anyone so they suppressed the information about how much they knew. That is one theory which may be supported by the evidence, but as you know, there is a lot of evidence and a lot of controversy about that evidence. It would take maybe a year, probably more, just to review the evidence that is public and form some sort of conclusion that is actually informed.

3. This is so much harder to do than most people realize. Yes, North Korea, may have had help. I certainly hope so. And N. Korea is not the only source of these dollars. See https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Superdollar.

4. See https://www.newyorker.com/magazine/2021/04/26/the-incredible-rise-of-north-koreas-hacking-army

Suicide Squad and Behavioral Animation

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Behavioral animation in Suicide Squad.  Go rats, go!  Save the world!

Suicide Squad and Little Birdies

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If you look carefully, you will find little animated birdies in the scenes with Harley Quinn exterminating the soldiers of the presidential palace.

Its attention to the details that can make a film great.

Murder and Bipartisanship

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Not going to do a great job here so work with me. Global climate change will make life miserable for possibly billions of people, it has already affected hundreds of millions. But the cause of this disaster, our political elites and the elites that control them, is decades in the making, and those who are most guilty will live their lives in nearly perfect security, although their children will hate them for their greed because they will know the real story even if they dont admit it. But in this country we are watching a hideous little corrupt nightmare in real time in which the followers of the Republican cult are the victims of the latest coronavirus variant, sweeping through the unvaccinated like a sword of gods vengeance wielded by an angel of justice, who beg for the vaccine as they are intubated at the hospital, cursing the republican murder swine who lied to them and begging for their lives. And you can be sure that the failed and corrupt justice system of this country will not do a damn thing about it, this deliberate murder of thousands if not 10s of thousands if not more of the stupid followers of this so called political party. Probably only those who die or their relatives will see in its true horror what was done to them, but those of us who are not members of the cult have to watch this horror and know for certain that the murder of our fellow citizens will not be avenged. And then there will be a call for "bipartisanship" that we should compromise with these murderers who only want to destroy this country. Who, therefore should we negotiate with? Can we not at least demand that they elect new leaders as the old ones, the Ted Cruz's and McCarthys and so forth, have hands dripping with blood. Shall we negotiate with them? About what, exactly?

A little melodramatic, true, but you get the point. And what is beautiful is that while Trump killed a half million Americans, they were from all political beliefs. But now his representatives in federal and state legislatures and the pundits from hell spout deadly venom and kill their own followers.

What philosophy should I use to explain this? Platonic? Liberalism? Laissez Faire capitalism?

The Move Continues and the State Fails

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I will talk to a lawyer in a week to understand my rights in this situation.  This unexpected and incredibly destructive and stress inducing move.  My guess is that while I could prolong this situation, I probably dont need to so I probably won't.  But it might be fun to understand the rules and throw these people a fuck because they sure deserve it.

I have written a letter explaining why the libel they said about me is wrong and encourage them to do better in the future. I will deliver it right before or after I move.

My patron has graciously extended a benefit which will allow me to live in the area, see and complete the procedures with the dentist in Westlake Village, and pursue in a modest way the UCSB thing.

The state has failed to protect the people so what are they good for?

What the words really mean to the poor

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To the poor the words mean something else.

When someone tells you about a housing authority or talks about punctuation or suggests you find a job on the internet, what they are really saying is fuck you.

Enver Pasha at the Al Aqsa Mosque

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Enver Pasha visiting the Al Aqsa Mosque.  Yes, I know Enver Pasha was a very bad person, or at least many people think so.  Genocide.

The honor guard left to protect the Al Aqsa Mosque from looting.  The last soldier had a special request.

“I am Corporal Hasan from the 20th corp, 36th Battalion, 8th Squadron heavy machine gun team which was deployed at the Al-Aqsa mosque the day we lost Quds…”

“When you return to the country, if you ever reach Tokat Sanjak, go and find my commander who deployed me here, Captain Musa. Kiss his hands for me and tell him… Corporal Hasan from Iğdır Province of the 11th Machine gun team still remains at the post you deployed him to.”

White Christmas in VistaVision

 

Did you know that White Christmas was shot in VistaVision?

 

 

Blogger Damaged by Latest Release

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Poor Blogger!  Clearly they have not been given many resources and I should be glad that they exist at all.  Anyway they did a major software upgrade a while ago and as time goes by I notice more and more things that are broken.

Why are these companies so bad at software?  I dont know, but it looks like they do not do minimal testing and they do minimal, if any, design reviews.  My guess is that they know better but have budget limitations.  Just a guess.

 

Marvel and Body Armor for Women

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You may not be aware that the issue of body armor for women and how you deal with those women of various breast sizes is a somewhat controversial or at least ongoing topic.  The history of this goes way back and includes rumors from the greeks about how the Amazons in the 5th century BC dealt with the issue.  

 

On a more directly sexist note, the dubious choices made by fantasy illustrators whose heroines have somewhat preposterous bosoms and even more preposterous bodice / body armor has long been noted by teenage boys in the 1920s through to the present day.

 

Marvel has entered into this fashion dialog by proposing a sensible yet imposing solution for the TVA operatives (Time Variance Authority) who enforce the laws and repress deviance from the "Sacred Timeline".  This is from the first episode of Loki (2021). 

 

Remember for body armor to be reasonable, it has to be comfortable enough to wear for a long time, certainly all day.  Yikes, that must be annoying.

 

This is the Marvel proposal.  It doesnt look all that comfortable but at least it is not overtly decorative.  It looks functional. 

 

 

 Here are two examples of body armor from concept sketches found on the Internet.

                                        

 

I am not sure that either of the two above are practical and look more like parade armor to me, e.g. the armor used in presentations, not battle.

I will spare you some of the more egregious, often bikini-inspired, concepts in this area.

Rand 1700 Main Street Re-creation

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A real time simulation of the early RAND buildings at 1700 Main Street in Santa Barbara.  This is a screenshot from version 53.

 

It runs best in Google Chrome by the way, but it will run in any browser that has WebGL enabled. It may take a few seconds to load textures.

https://mwahrman.com/dist_053/rand_0_53.html

Something to Like About Right Wing Judges

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Although it is true that the American people will suffer and be victimized by nutty boy right wing judges, at least we get to be amused by how stupid they are.  For the record, an AR-15 is not a swiss army knife.  It is a purpose built design by an American company and the design was initially a failure until, in almost a Cinderella fashion, a modified version was chosen by the army.  It is an excellent design, easily manufactured, and completely purpose built to kill humans at a distance, lots of humans.  

 

What if everytime our nutty boy Republicans do something stupid involving the 2nd Amendment, what if all Democrats in the affected areas went out and bought several high quality AR-15s with many extended magazines.  Maybe when they realized that they were just arming their enemy, the damn liberals, maybe they will change their toon.

 

Letter to a Friend

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I think we know where we both stand, so why am I bothering you?  I am bothering you because I essentially have no one else to talk to (not quite true but almost true) and I like to vent my feelings.

I doubt I am going to blow anything up.  I may be able to leave the country but doing so requires that I solve a number of problems that have proven unsolvable in the past (there are a few wrinkles here that might work out because I havent tried everything and I do think there is promise in finding a marriage partner who wants a US citizenship and who has a European or UK citizenship with which to trade.... until they close that loophole).

I happen to agree with the editorial below, at least I think I do as far as I have read it and I know the author's work. 

https://www.salon.com/2021/06/01/republican-attacks-on-democracy-are-a-national-emergency-will-democrats-ever-fight-back/

There are huge differences between us and the Weimar example, we are not Germany between the wars.  Nor are we the Shah of Iran during the revolution.  But both examples do suggest one commonality: people were way too complacent that they could control the fanatics and that they did not represent a threat.  I say to you, not only do our right wing fascists represent a threat, they are 9/10ths of the way there and nothing less than immediate extreme response will help.  Now I know you dont believe that, and bipartisan, and cant we just get along, and who needs a Jan 6 commission.  But I think this is sheer and obvious lunacy.  Those who are not ready to go to the mattresses will never defend freedom they have been given enough chances and frankly, we failed.  I hope you get your children out in time.

 

What We Learned About the Law from Donald Trump

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A friend who broke her wrist slugging her soon to be ex husband when he confessed to sleeping with another woman for most of their marriage now faces possibly having to change careers if the hospital wont let her take care of patients with this kind of charge/conviction.

This seems dreadfully unfair but I told her what I think we learned from Trump.  It doesnt matter what is true or what is right you fight the conviction and lie your head off (in a way that doesnt get you a perjury charge) and never admit you were wrong.

If donald can fuck and kill a million people then she should be able to hit her good for nothing ex husband without consequence.

The law is a joke, right?

 

 

Several New Blogs To Start

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I have to start several new blogs, each of them on a specific topic.  The problem is that this is hard to do.

Indicators of the Inevitable Collapse

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You may wish to read this post about assumptions.  See  http://globalwahrman.blogspot.com/2021/05/assumptions-are-mother-of-all-fuckup.html

In the last 3-6 months I have gone from cautious optimism to genuine pessimism. I needed to see how Biden worked out, and of course that is better than expected. But there are other "indicators" to use a phrase from nuclear deterrence that are really not good. I use "indicator" in the sense of something like "N Korea is attacking us again verbally, but they are not on alert, they are not on maneuvers, and they have not started shelling the DMZ, they are probably not going to attack us this week". 

But the indicators I see are more like this, "The Republicans really do capture about 45 percent of the vote, sometimes more, sometimes less, even without voter suppression. Furthermore, those voters really are 75% or so supportive of Trump which is astonishing and very troubling. And although there are variations in that support and the reasons for it, those reasons include such things as living in a delusional world about very important topics (note, not merely uncaring or indifferent, but genuinely delusional and with strong opinions) and supportive of policies that are really bad, really dangerous, and they dont mind, in fact, they insist on it. "  Another reason why Trump has such strong support is that he is overtly and unambiguously racist and they like that.  A third reason is that most of his supporters are anti-science and are perfectly happy to believe whatever garbage they are fed by the right wing press.  Or for example, "Republicans have no trouble setting up barriers to voting for people of color, and people who are working class, and people who are financially disadvantaged or disabled. In fact, they are determined to do this, period, in any state they control, and that means since the elections are usually close that they will win those elections, continue control of the statehouses, regain control of the houses of congress, and probably elect a president over the will of the people." Or, "Biden has no chance of passing any bill through the senate as long as the filibuster exists. Every bill will be blocked. That is what McConnell says he will do, and that is what they have done and will do. Nothing short of a miracle will change that. If we lose the senate, even nominations for important posts wont be approved." Or "I watched Republican Congressman and Senators violate the law in egregious ways that damaged our national security, and they were not punished. See the incidents involving outing the whistleblowers. This means our government is impotent, and can not even enforce the most important and most serious of laws, and that elected congressmen are willing and determined to damage our country to achieve their goals of power".

If we really controlled the senate, then this would be different, perhaps, but we dont. We will lose the next election because the election will be stolen. Another 4 year period or 2 year period where the Republicans can do what they like will complete the destruction of the country for a minimum of 30 years, or longer.

Assumptions Are the Mother of All Fuckups

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These problems of "decline and fall" are too big to reduce to emails, because a complete discussion of any topic would be exhausting to write and tiresome to read. My doom and gloom has some unstated assumptions that might make the conclusions seem more reasonable or at least understandable.

First, we are always talking about probabilities not certainties. But that is very important for planning because a 10% chance of destroying the world is something to pay attention to even if it doesnt happen. Second, all models are wrong but some models are useful. Third, the notion of "enlightened self interest" and the "rational actor" theories of economic and political decision making does not have a great track record. Therefore arguments based on these assumptions do not have a lot of credibility with me unless substantiated by other data. Fourth, in the debate between the "conspiracy" vs "screw up" explanations of events its important to remember that the correct answer is usually "both". Fifth, although both people and organizations can change, in general they dont, and past behavior can usefully be used to predict the immediate and distant future of behavior. This can be stated biblically "As it is at the beginning, so it is at the end". Sixth, trust must be earned, and the higher the stakes, the more it must be earned or controlled for. Seventh, I expect to be able to learn from my mistakes. Eighth, with great power comes great responsibility but there is a reason for this, and that is because you really can make things better or worse in many (but not all) cases. Ninth, the past isnt over, it isnt even past yet. Tenth, every great power has declined but stupidity can always make things worse.
 

These assumptions, when applied to the last 20 years, leads to some predictions and they are not good.

Failed US Govt Unable To Investigate Jan 6 Insurrection

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So sorry US Government failed to investigate Jan 6 insurrection.  Just another sign the government is too weak to support freedom.  

One More Time Blogger is Not Supported

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The email subscription widget of Blogger is going away.  I dont think that this service is supported very well, but I knew that was a possibility when I signed on.  Now I am committed.  If you are going to have a blog, I recommend finding another way than to use blogger/blogspot.  You have been warned.

Santa Barbara, The Police and Racism

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I am a guest here in beautiful santa barbara, but maybe the reality is that our world is imperfect and there are problems everywhere. There were two recent events here at the [REDACTED], none of which involved me, and which I did not know about until they were over. Things are calm now. Both of these involved the police. In one case, a police officer told our landlady that if so and so had been black she would have been on the ground with his knee on her neck. I guess they are very proud of the recent murder involving a black man and that maneuver. Our landlady was shocked by this overt racism in someone who is expected to respect and abide by the law. In another case, one of our nicest people here was thrown in a retaining cell (on Figueroa) for a day with a broken arm. The cell was filthy, with bugs (bed bugs?) and she was denied medical attention (her arm was obviously broken) and was told to shut up and stop asking for it. I did not witness any of this. I am not completely shocked but yes I am disturbed and disappointed. I know from recent discussions with my elected county supervisor that they could not care less what I think. What, if anything, would you like me to do with this information. I make it my policy to avoid the police as much as possible. Shall I forget about this? Would it be so (deleted) hard to keep the holding cell minimally clean and avoid making racist comments in public and maybe if someone has a broken hand to get her a nurse and some Tylenol? Maybe Santa Barbara is a poor inner city slum and cant afford such things? I am here as your guest and I feel I should ask you. My policy in general is fight or flight (protest injustice or put a bag over my head).

Another Helpful Message for my Congressman

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My congressman is Salud Carbajal.  I have no idea if he is good, bad, indifferent, or whatever.  Still he is my representative and if I want something done in Washington I am supposed to contact him, right?  Ha ha, yeah.  Anyway I do.  Its a long story.

 

This time I asked why the scum who attacked the Capitol were not being charged with sedition, why Trump was not in jail, and what, if anything, they were going to do about that worthless scumbag and traitor, Senator Joe Manchin (D-W VA).  

 

I dont really expect an answer and I am sure I wont receive one, either.  I presume that his office thinks I'm a crank, which is fine with me.

 

Bird Neck's Point, Virginia Beach

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My parents lived here in Virginia Beach back in the day.

 

Excellent Statute of Limitations on Suing Government Agencies

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I admit that I am impressed with some of the things I learn about how our government works. So for example if you want to have a dictatorship but pretend you don't have a dictatorship and you want to pretend that you have a justice system and that people can file a lawsuit to get the government to do something reasonable, or to stop committing what are obviously crimes, then all you have to do is put in a 6 month statute of limitations which would be nearly impossible for most people to comply with unless this is what they did for a living and they had plenty of resources and they had a law firm ready to go which I think we can comfortably say doesn't happen. At least private individuals are unlikely to be able to comply with this requirement but possibly mid- to large- corporations could.  Thus corporations are able to protect themselves, or at least have a tool that might allow them to protect themselves, but the private citizen not so much. 

In that way you can see the corruption and crimes of the government can operate with complete freedom. This is most excellent. Obviously if we wanted a free society this rule would not exist.

(Policy Recommendation #2: Change or eliminate this statute of limitations).

Therapy and the Winter Soldier

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Not everyone appreciates the great depth and intelligence that can be found beneath the surface of the Marvel Cinematic portrayal of comic book superheroes, and its faithful and wry discussion of the many contradictions of our civilization as portrayed by Iron Man, Captain America, Thor and so forth. The latest MCU Disney + series (The Falcon and the Winter Soldier) has the setup that the Winter Soldier (a nice guy who was forced/programmed to be an assassin during the cold war) has to see a therapist as a condition of his parole.

I think it is completely hilarious and I so relate since I also have PTSD and really do not see much point about talking about it with a therapist.

Policy Series #1 Solution to Part of Immigration Problem

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Will be rewritten, maybe if you are lucky.

 

Children and their parents who come to the border seeking asylum should be met as follows:  1. They should be given decent communal living quarters with sanitation for one year, 2. They should be innoculated against all relevant diseases, 3. Their other medical problems should be dealt with as possible and in a humanitarium manner, 4. They and their children should be given a one year education that emphasizes english and the basics of living and of law and of birth control, 5. They should be given physical education to the extent they want it., 6. And then they should be returned to their country of origin with enough money for a month or two of living.

We can afford this.  Its a no brainer.

It is required that Christians, who are murder swine, not be allowed anywhere near this.

 

It is required that ICE/Gestapo who are murderers and rapists not be allowed anywhere near this.

 

To Supervisor Das Williams Regarding Georgia

 

Michael Wahrman

7:49 PM (0 minutes ago)

to Supervisor Das Williams

I see that Georgia is working against voting rights with the help of
the fascist Coca Cola and Delta Airlines.  Can you reassure me that
the County of Santa Barbara buys nothing from Coca Cola, Delta or
anywhere in the State of Georgia?  The best way to reach me is through
michael.wahrman@gmail.com.  No answer will be a confession that SB
supports voter suppression and I will vote accordingly at the next
election.

The Gun Nuts Shall Prevail, Oh Yes

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I can just hear the morons, the Republicans, say "Now is not the time to discuss gun restrictions" and all the nuts screaming "2nd Amendment!!!" How long will we permit Americans to be murdered by the gun nuts? This is America, a failed state, where democracy is destroyed and where the Republicans advocate the violent overthrow of the government, so we may never have elementary gun laws. Too bad. 

Would You Deny the American People Their Sovereignty?

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I think that our fellow citizens perhaps deserve more respect than they are given by many of my friends and fellow democrats. The argument goes like this ...

The collapse of the american civilization has revealed things about ourselves that maybe we would rather not know. But then when we learn those things, many of us would prefer to believe that those things are not true. They would deny their fellow americans the dignity of their decisions. They would deny that their fellow citizens know their own minds. They would deny them their free will. Yes, deny them that very self-awareness that the slaveowners and murderers who wrote the constitution required as a fundamental assumption of our so called and very undemocratic democracy. The facts are that some huge percentage of the voting Americans chose racism and hatred. They chose to deny equal justice before the law. They chose to take children from their mothers and put them in a jail and destroy their lives as a policy of this republic. They did that. They said "hate" but my fellow "democrats" insist they meant "love". Oh no, my liberal friends say, they didnt mean that. But I say they knew what they were saying. They werent fooled by Trump and Fox News or the traitors in Congress although admittedly those three are guilty of inciting people to violence, and of supporting treason, and other criminal and immoral or at least amoral acts. They, the sovereign people of the united states of america knew that they were voting to put right wing nuts on the judiciary to create a judicial dictatorship against the will of the majority. They knew that the knee of oppression was being put on our throats to choke the life out of our country. This is bitter tea, perhaps, to many of us. Perhaps their immortal soul is capable of turning away from evil but perhaps not, also. They stood before god and man and said we choose racism and lies and we know what we are doing. They are not pretending to be racist. Who are you to deny them the right to have and own their beliefs?

The MidCentury Building That is No Longer There

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I am trying to recreate 1700 Main Street with computer graphics.  This will be more difficult than I anticipated.  

The problem, or the opportunity if you will, is that 1700 Main Street was actually and sincerely a midcentury building and I am constantly puzzled by details and ideas that I do not remember. I was very young when I was there, you know. A child, really. The corridors are without lights and there is no moon in the sky. I am not sure I recognize this building. Is this what they call cognitive dissonance?

I dont recall them asking me before they tore this building down.

 

Nomadland and Other Films

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Excerpted from a conversation with [REDACTED]

"Nomadland" was a big disappointment for me. I had been led to believe that it was a movie about zombies that attack a trailer park. Well! Fuck me! No such luck. I did appreciate that whats her name shat (past tense of shit) in a bucket but that one element, as appealing as it is on the surface, could not carry the film.

Regarding influencing public opinion, I did not explain myself well. In my obsessive doom scrolling, I read review/analysis articles by annointed pundits (did you know that this word came via the British adventure in india and refers to a "pandit" who is a type of Hindu scholar knowledgeable about the Vedic scriptures among other topics?) who purport to tell me what I and any reasonable person should like and hate. In particular, this pundit pointed out that The Joker was an abomination and no sensible person would like that yucky film. Well, you know what? Although I resisted seeing yet another film anywhere at all related to "The Batman" I have to admit that this was an interesting film, at least in part, with some very strong performances. So fuck him. Fuck all of them, if you see where I am going with this.

I want to say something nice about "Tenet" which as you know is not a terribly well regarded film. Well, although the concept is "just OK", I think it gets a bad rap for reasons that are not actually part of the film itself. If Nolan was an unknown, and made this movie (in a somewhat reduced form) for ... (making this up) ... maybe 1/3 to 1/4 the budget, then I think it would be regarded as a somewhat entertaining action adventure film. This is the well understood problem of giving a filmmaker too much money and of course people having expectations.

Setting expectations is so important.

It is very clear to me that visual effects has lost its way. The best visual effects film of the year might be one without time travel or space craft it may be a film with 30 shots, not 3000 shots, although I dont know what this film is. I think the vfx section suffers from the problems that accrue from self-important people whose very small dick, metaphorically speaking, has gone to their head... wait that image needs work. I need to think about this.

 

 

The Rini & Meredith Willson Auditions for The Music Man

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Apparently Rini & Meredith Wilson needed to perform the entire play (The Music Man) by themselves and a piano (not clear who played the piano) for dozens and dozens of auditions. Auditions to get a producer, then a director, then a music director, then a theatre, then a music company to publish the music and the cast recording, investor, etc, etc. This is before anyone was cast. Some of these went well, some of these didnt go well at all. And of course songs came and went, and the "book" changed a lot. But here is the point, as far as I can tell from the book about the production (But He Doesnt Know the Territory), none of these were ever recorded and they do not exist in any form that we can listen to.

 

"But He Doesnt Know the Territory" by Meredith Willson on Amazon.

https://www.amazon.com/dp/B00IK7WQ8O/ref=dp-kindle-redirect?_encoding=UTF8&btkr=1

Filibuster Did Not Apply to Republican Tax Bill

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Why is it only the Democrats who have to be on their knees and beg the Republicans to please, please, please let them pass a bill. I checked and the Republican Tax bill which gave money to their rich friends and destroyed the deficit (remember: it was going to pay for itself by increased GNP, ha ha ha ha ha) was passed 51 to 49. So obviously its bullshit and they should just pass the stimulus 51 - 50 (with VP Harris) and move on to the next.

[Ha so the answer is that this was a reconsiliation, which seems weird to me, but there it is]

https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2017/12/01/us/politics/senate-tax-bill-vote.html

Trump Castrati and the Failure of the Constitution

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I think that recent events put to rest any thought of even the most obsessed old school liberal that bipartisanship has any value at all. It has none, it is dead. The Republicans and the so called conservatives have cut off their balls and presented them to the great moron. Their path to power is through manipulating the states to suppress legitimate votes and so use the completely insane mechanism of the electoral college to steal another election. The Democrats cant and wont stop them: game over. And if we want to lick the feet of the constitution ever again in my lifetime, then implement the 14th amendment, 3rd clause. Insert stupid excuse here, blah blah blah. But you cant just pick and choose like that. It makes it all an obvious joke. I think Biden is doing a good job given what he has to work with. Americans may deceive themselves that things are fixed but the knife is in and the problems cant be solved at that level. 

The Constitution, so called, is pretty clear.

Section 3

No Person shall be a Senator or Representative in Congress, or elector of President and Vice-President, or hold any office, civil or military, under the United States, or under any State, who, having previously taken an oath, as a member of Congress, or as an officer of the United States, or as a member of any State legislature, or as an executive or judicial officer of any State, to support the Constitution of the United States, shall have engaged in insurrection or rebellion against the same, or given aid or comfort to the enemies thereof. But Congress may by a vote of two-thirds of each House, remove such disability.

 

Hannes Leopoldseder

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There was a time, perhaps 1984 or so, long before computer animation was accepted by polite society, when the true believers would assemble at Siggraph. This was before the fall from grace and pretty much everyone there was dedicated and pure of heart. I would always stay through to the day after the conference and in the lobby of the conference hotel I would find my friends from Austria, always Christine Schoepf and usually Gerfried and Horst and maybe a few others from their tribe. Some years she was accompanied by someone who seemed very distinguished and interesting to me, but who I did not know well. Someone she called Hannes. I loved these people, people who were dedicated to the emerging arts as mediated by technology. Not just computer animation, whatever that might be, but the larger world of what computing and communications would bring to the arts as that world is defined by those communities. As the years went by, Christine and Hannes were able to sponsor me to visit Linz where I would torture them with my totally sincere and unplanned behavior as I explored Linz and bothered the hell out of the other juries of the Prix Ars Electronica. And always, there was Hannes who seemed to be above it all and yet in some sense it was clear that he was the keeper of the vision. One night at an event at a local restaurant, I saw Hannes at work and I realized that someone had to raise the money, someone had to convince the powers that be that these crazy artists or technologists or whatever were bringing something to Linz. That he and his partners in crime, Christine, Gerfried and the others, were here to contribute to their community and maybe even the larger world of contemporary art. I wanted to get to know Hannes better but circumstances did not permit that to happen. Did I ever thank Hannes for his generosity and his contribution and for allowing me to be part of their family for a few years? I dont remember. Thank you, Hannes.

Christine Schoepf 

 

Hannes Leopoldseder at work

Bachelor Vegetarian Cooking Internet Style

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This book is for single people of whatever gender who for reasons of circumstances beyond their control (or within their control, whatever) cook for themselves more or less every day and on a budget.  I have done this for 25 years and I know something about it. 

 

- who should read this book

- required ingredients

- special diet requirements 

 - etc

California and Vaccine Allocation

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I may have sampling error but I think what the State of California did was to partition up their vaccine supply by the total population of each county instead of asking what proportion of each county was in the designated target audience, e.g. how many 75+ and health care workers. This would explain why counties with a smaller proportion of these designated victims could immediately move on to other target audiences whereas Santa Barbara, with a higher percentage of older people, perhaps, has been struggling. 

If true, there are two morals of this story. First, one more time the State of CA is not being even minimally competent at the tasks they are called upon to do. I would expect better from any undergraduate economics student at a university and I do not even get that level of analysis from the state. Second, choose where you live carefully. and remember this is not the last pandemic.

An Anecdote and the Test of Character

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So my friends parents lived in a house in LA. They maintained pristine social isolation except for one caregiver / assistant who bought the groceries, cooked the meals, and so forth. Unbeknownst to the caregiver, she was exposed to the coronavirus and was asymptomatic, brought the virus home, and the two parents were dead within about a week from the time they realized that anything was wrong. There is no doubt, none whatsoever, that if Trump and his co-conspirators had acted minimally responsibly the course of this disease would have been different. The details of their failure are still coming out and its apparently much worse than anyone knew.

I need the Republican party in the Senate to find 17 loyal Americans who can do the right thing. This is the test of character. There will be no other test that matters. And we all know what is going to happen. This could be a moment of redemption and a step on the long road back. But they will fail this test, wont they.

Bipartisanship is So Dead Its Body Isnt Even Rotting

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[... a copy of an email sent to a friend of mine, a strong supporter of bipartisanship ...]

I wrote a many page email to try and create a narrative to explain my point of view. But it was long winded and tiresome. Here is the short more direct version. One party no longer subscribes to tit for tat as you put it. Their constituents have successfully created a party whose strategy is "I get everything; you get nothing". Nothing but total victory is acceptable to them, when you lose you scream bloody murder, when you win its because you were right. Negotiating with the enemy is just a way to run out the clock and fuck them so that they get nothing and you get everything. The hope is that you can sucker the stupid morons, the Democrats, into doing it over and over again. Charlie Brown and the Football. As part of this, the laws are bullshit for other people. When you do something its the right thing to do. If they do anything to oppose you its because they are left wing radicals who want to destroy america. So, it is the right thing to do to destroy the judiciary. It is the right thing to do to strangle black people on the street. It is the right thing to do. Statistically speaking, at the national level at least, this is the policy of the Republican party and there are no other Republicans. They are all Devon Nunes. Every once in a while you get a shill like Collins who pretends to want to do the right thing, but she never does, its just a tactic to make the stupid Democrats waste time before they get fucked again. Ha ha ha! We fucked you! The constitution exists as a way to fuck freedom and steal elections. Everyone knows that. As Matt Gaentz (sp?) says, this is how the game is played, stop complaining. When the other party is in power you fuck the country as hard as possible so that people will get mad at them and reelect you to continue your looting.

Therefore as far as I am concerned, we stop complaining and we start fighting. Term limits, End the filibuster. Pack the court. If we own the senate, then goddamn it, own the senate. Remove citizens united. Restore the fairness doctrine. Put the motherfuckers in jail where they can learn moral improvement and become better people. Game theory has proven time and again that you cant compromise with people of bad faith. There is no point in discussing racial equality with Nazis. There is no point in discussing it with Republicans, either. The good old days of the bipartisan approach to the US Government is so dead the body isnt even rotting anymore. Now its just a matter of whether we live in a right-wing authoritarian and racist society or we dont. Some of us are tired of being treated like garbage, we intend to fight back. Lets see if the constitution actually has any value or if it is the joke people think it is like the high-sounding constitutions of your other, shithole countries. Enforce the law on the criminals of the previous administration. Use the power we earned to pass the legislation necessary. We have two years. Bernie Sanders, my favorite democratic socialist jew from brooklyn, has warned the Democratic party that it is time to deliver results. If not, people will be real mad and the Democrats can kiss winning an election goodbye.

I say this for your own good!

Four Bad Things in One Day

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Let me tell you what happened today.

1. The senate republicans voted against a trial for trump on procedural grounds, and while they lost it indicates there is no chance of a trial on its merits. For a second time the Republicans vote entirely on political grounds and show zero integrity.

2. Manchen (D-WVA) indicates he will not vote to get rid of the filibuster under any circumstances. Without Manchen the Democrats will lose every vote in the Senate, and with the filibuster, most bills will not even get to a vote.

3. A Trump appointed judge in Texas put a hold on the temporary block that Biden put in place on deportations. The judiciary has been destroyed and even if we passed bills the Trump judiciary would just block them.

4. The Russians, who put Trump in power, loved the insurrection and so they are now hosting Parler so the nutty boy right can plan more deaths.

I propose that given the Republicans are traitors, the judiciary is fucked, that the Democrats do not control the senate and with the right now having a secure comm channel, that the situation is about as bad as it can be.

Oh Columbia! Oh!

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Though they may defecate in the hallways of your sacred justice and put their perjuring attack dogs on your most supreme court, they do not realize that without a legitimate process the opinions and judgments from this perverted court mean nothing and have no power to command.  

 

The American People will rise up and defend you.  They will defend the will of the majority against this minority of pernicious conspirators!

 

We are coming, Columbia!  We will defend you! 

Explaining Twitter's Ban of Trump

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A friend of mine, Seth Haberman, is concerned about the free speech issues of Twitter banning Trump, who is an obvious criminal and murderer, from Twitter.  This was my response.

I suppose I should be pleased that people are trying to think about, and take seriously, such issues as freedom of speech, but I suggest you are overthinking it. Twitter supported a right wing criminal, bully and compulsive liar as long as they could, doing exactly what the Right told them to do. Then, when Trump gave that ridiculous speech and the rioters attacked the capitol, I suspect that Twitter's attorneys told their client to run for cover. Their position was and is legally weak, and the corporate sponsors knew that there was going to be a backlash from their users, from their advertisers, from voters, and from Congress. Twitter waited to the last possible moment that they plausibly could, I think they deserve credit for that. I am not sure what the final straw was, perhaps the guy in the horns, or the policeman who was murdered with the fire extinguisher to the head, or the MAGA folks defecating in the hallways of Congress, or maybe because a big part of their user base was hopping mad? Or maybe, like deVos, it was nothing of the sort, they just waited to the last minute to jump ship, at this point it is every person for themselves as they try to dodge the inevitable criminal indictments and civil lawsuits. I think it is nice that you and Merkel are concerned about the bigger first amendment issues, but I wouldnt worry, the right wing supreme court will keep things as they are. This decision was a pure CYA and had very little to do with ethics or free speech. That is and will continue to be just a superficial cover for the usual maneuvering for power and money.