Final Warning

I have tried to avoid writing about either Ukraine or the Israel/Hamas war.  But if I read one more stupid editorial about either, I will be forced to take action.  You have been warned.

Nutty Russian Conspiracy Theory

Russia used to be the home of nutty conspiracy theories. This one comes from a Russian observer who writes for DailyKOS. I think this one is pretty good. 

The idea is that Putin and Mr. Wagner are in cahoots and this is all about establishing Wagner (whose name I can neither pronounce nor spell) as a wildly impulsive nutty guy, who goes to Belarus, seizes the nuclear weapons, and threatens to nuke something unless the US/Nato stops supporting Ukraine. The idea suggests that Mr. Wagners rants were all backstory to this and that they needed to put someone who appears to be nutty into the loop because Putin is considered too rational to do this. 

Unlike many nutty theories, this one can easily be tested because of its predictive nature. Lets see what happens in the next week or two with the nukes in Belarus. 

I hope I have not wasted your time with this but have contributed to your day. 

Genocide in Ukraine

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There doesnt seem to be any doubt that some sort of ethnic cleansing is going on in Ukraine.  Maybe it will be necessary for the United Nations and/or NATO to take action.  Europe did not stop the genocide against the Jews and others, nor is it totally clear that they could have done much in the 1938-1945 period.  But that was then and this is now and we have options today we did not have then.  No one wants war with Russia but ultimately you have to make a stand and there has been ample provocation.  Is this the start of WW 3 or 4? I think it might be.  Again, what are your principles, what do you really stand for?   

 

By the way, the ISW, quoted below, has demonstrated that they are a reliable source of information.  All of their analysis is based on open source intelligence.  They are not using any secret intelligence.  

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, April 26, 2023

Apr 26, 2023 - Press ISW

Russia appears to be continuing a deliberate depopulation campaign in occupied areas of Ukraine in order to facilitate the repopulation of Ukrainian territories with Russians. Ukrainian Deputy Defense Minister Hanna Malyar stated on April 26 that Russia is trying to change the ethnic composition of Ukraine by actively conducting a large-scale resettlement of people mainly from poorer and remote regions of Russia into Ukraine. Malyar noted that the most intensive efforts are ongoing in occupied Luhansk Oblast and remarked that Russia is also deporting Ukrainians and forcibly resettling them in Russia. ISW previously reported on specific instances of Russian authorities overseeing the depopulation and repopulation of areas of occupied Ukraine, particularly in occupied Kherson Oblast over the course of 2022. Ukrainian sources remarked in October 2022 that Russian authorities in then-occupied parts of Kherson Oblast deported large groups of Ukrainian residents to Russia under the guise of humanitarian evacuations and then repopulated their homes with Russian soldiers. Russia may hope to import Russians to fill depopulated areas of Ukraine in order to further integrate occupied areas into Russian socially, administratively, politically, and economically, thereby complicating conditions for the reintegration of these territories into Ukraine. ISW has previously assessed that such depopulation and repopulation campaigns may amount to a deliberate ethnic cleansing effort and apparent violation of the Geneva Convention on the Prevention and Punishment of the Crime of Genocide.

What I Learned from Davos

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I watched some of the Davos 2022 World Economic Forum sessions and this is what I learned.  

 

First Globalization is a total success and if millions, even 10s of millions of Americans are impoverished or destroyed, the rest of the world couldnt care less.

 

Second, the Russian war with Ukraine is a European matter and outside of Europe, no one really cares, they just dont want it to affect the price they have to pay for things.  Of course they will do business with Russia, who cares about genocide?  Not them.

 

Third, China is the country that matters now, the US is decidedly second rate and obviously has a failed government.  The US is still considered to have a strong economy and military, second to China of course.

 

Fourth, no European thinks that they could possibly deal with Putin in the future. The rest of the world doesnt care.

 

Fifth, no one thinks that Finland and Sweden joining NATO will really be a big problem for Russia.