Showing posts with label Russia. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Russia. Show all posts

Tuesday, June 27, 2023

Nutty Russian Conspiracy Theory


Russia used to be the home of nutty conspiracy theories. This one comes from a Russian observer who writes for DailyKOS. I think this one is pretty good. 

The idea is that Putin and Mr. Wagner are in cahoots and this is all about establishing Wagner (whose name I can neither pronounce nor spell) as a wildly impulsive nutty guy, who goes to Belarus, seizes the nuclear weapons, and threatens to nuke something unless the US/Nato stops supporting Ukraine. The idea suggests that Mr. Wagners rants were all backstory to this and that they needed to put someone who appears to be nutty into the loop because Putin is considered too rational to do this. 

Unlike many nutty theories, this one can easily be tested because of its predictive nature. Lets see what happens in the next week or two with the nukes in Belarus. 

I hope I have not wasted your time with this but have contributed to your day. 




Monday, May 29, 2023

How Ironic if the Cold Warriors were Right about Russia


All the time I was at RAND and in all the years afterwards, when I read the views of the "cold warriors", I dismissed their arguments that Russia was in some sense evil. Yes, they were an adversary and Stalinism and Marxist/Leninist doctrine caused a lot of (to my mind) needless suffering of their own people and many people who were in some real sense "innocent". But I never really bought the "evil empire" schtick. How ironic, if the Cold Warriors were "right" and Russians turn out to be barbarians who are a threat to civilization. How ironic and disappointing.

 

Thursday, April 27, 2023

Genocide in Ukraine

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There doesnt seem to be any doubt that some sort of ethnic cleansing is going on in Ukraine.  Maybe it will be necessary for the United Nations and/or NATO to take action.  Europe did not stop the genocide against the Jews and others, nor is it totally clear that they could have done much in the 1938-1945 period.  But that was then and this is now and we have options today we did not have then.  No one wants war with Russia but ultimately you have to make a stand and there has been ample provocation.  Is this the start of WW 3 or 4? I think it might be.  Again, what are your principles, what do you really stand for?   
 
By the way, the ISW, quoted below, has demonstrated that they are a reliable source of information.  All of their analysis is based on open source intelligence.  They are not using any secret intelligence.  


Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, April 26, 2023

Russia appears to be continuing a deliberate depopulation campaign in occupied areas of Ukraine in order to facilitate the repopulation of Ukrainian territories with Russians. Ukrainian Deputy Defense Minister Hanna Malyar stated on April 26 that Russia is trying to change the ethnic composition of Ukraine by actively conducting a large-scale resettlement of people mainly from poorer and remote regions of Russia into Ukraine. Malyar noted that the most intensive efforts are ongoing in occupied Luhansk Oblast and remarked that Russia is also deporting Ukrainians and forcibly resettling them in Russia. ISW previously reported on specific instances of Russian authorities overseeing the depopulation and repopulation of areas of occupied Ukraine, particularly in occupied Kherson Oblast over the course of 2022. Ukrainian sources remarked in October 2022 that Russian authorities in then-occupied parts of Kherson Oblast deported large groups of Ukrainian residents to Russia under the guise of humanitarian evacuations and then repopulated their homes with Russian soldiers. Russia may hope to import Russians to fill depopulated areas of Ukraine in order to further integrate occupied areas into Russian socially, administratively, politically, and economically, thereby complicating conditions for the reintegration of these territories into Ukraine. ISW has previously assessed that such depopulation and repopulation campaigns may amount to a deliberate ethnic cleansing effort and apparent violation of the Geneva Convention on the Prevention and Punishment of the Crime of Genocide.


Wednesday, May 25, 2022

We Must Remember to Thank Putin

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Who else but Vladimir Putin, the bringer of peace, would have been able to unite NATO? Who else would convince not just the European countries but any small country near a large neighbor like China to increase their military budgets? Who else could have terminated any hope of reducing the American military budget? None but Vladimir could cause the whole world to hate him and Russia and convince the world that madness still reigns at the highest levels?
 
Now what would Mahan say? That nation that controls the sea will rule the world? Time for the US Navy to clear the sea lanes of the Black Sea to end the extortion and let the grain be delivered to the hungry?




Monday, February 21, 2022

Ukraine! Well I am Certainly Surprised

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Of all things, I really did not expect Vladimir the Great to actually recreate Munich before Europe's horrified eyes.  And Vlad knows that whatever Biden does, he can use the Republicans to destroy him and the Democrats and put their stooge in power, just like they did in 2016.

 

 


Saturday, December 31, 2016

Introducing Alisa Elega Shevchenko Glamourous Russian Cybercriminal

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We end 2016 on Global Wahrman with a note of hope in a world otherwise diminished by death, war, greed, and hypocrisy.

The Obama Administration, in one of its final acts, has published a list of Soviet, I mean Russian, firms and individuals implicated in the DNC hack. Those of us who are concerned about the lack of women in computing, particularly the important new field of Cybercrime, can take heart by the inclusion of poster child Alisa Elega Shevchenko on this list.

Although she modestly claims to have no idea what people are talking about, adolescent men and some women can be encouraged by her excellent photograph which could have come right out of Soviet Vogue.

Please give a warm welcome to Alisa Elega Shevchenko.







Saturday, December 10, 2016

New Russian Super Torpedo and the New Cold War

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Today we are going to ask some questions about this alleged Russian Superweapon, the Torpedo From Hell, the Status-6. Get your booties on, because we are going to slog through some messy Cold War logic in a few paragraphs.

If you know nothing about this latest scare from Russia, the best article I know about it is on Foxtrot Alpha and can be found here.

Here is what you are supposed to gather about this torpedo. First, it wasn't an accidental leak, the Russians want us to know about it. Second, it may or may not exist, and if it exists, it probably doesn't do everything that it claims to do because some of those things are *really hard* and if you could really do them you might want to keep it a secret. Third, we already knew that they had nasty ways of blowing us up and spreading radioactive death for a long time.

So what is this all about then? The Russians have made it clear that they do not like our little missile shield. Why is a bit of a puzzle and is discussed below but it is very clear that they do not like the shield at all. But we have refused to stop deploying it for whatever reason (also discussed below). So my guess, purely a guess, is that they are presenting this torpedo (underwater missile) as a way of saying “See! We don't really care about your missile shield because we can blow you up anyway! So there!”

Now, what is a little weird about this is that the missile shield that we have and are likely to have in the next decade or so falls loosely into two types. One type is a tactical “Patriot” missile type, developed in part by the Israelis. The other is a strategic missile type developed on our own that uses the Navy SM6 (Standard Missile 6) to the best of my knowledge. The tactical missile defense is a pretty good defense against a fair number of tactical missiles at one time. These missiles that they defend against can certainly cause a lot of damage but they will not destroy Tel Aviv without an awful lot of work.

The strategic missile shield is what we are probably talking about here. The thing about this is that the Russians have nothing to worry about from it. Why? Because in time of nuclear war, the Russians could easily launch enough missiles to overwhelm this shield. This shield is good for a few missiles, maybe, certainly not the tsunami of missiles one would expect if we were in a nuclear war with the Russians.

So what is this shield good for? Two things. The first would be one or two missiles that were launched by mistake or in some way were launched by a rogue site that was not under control of its nominal government. And the second thing it could be useful for is in defense against a few missiles from a country like Iran or N. Korea who only has a few nuclear weapons available at one time and maybe also only a few relatively primitive intercontinental missiles to deliver them with.

So the point of the Status-6 may be to say something like, “We spit on your missile shield! See, we can go around it with our nifty torpedo!”. Ok, fine, but the missile shield was not aimed (so to speak) at Russia, so its all a little puzzling.

Maybe it has more to do with influencing people who are not very sophisticated at this, like the populations of Europe and Asia who are easily frightened? Of course people should be frightened about nuclear war, but I do not see how defending against loony toons like Iran and N. Korea could possibly threaten Russia.

But one thing you can be sure of, this is the kind of nuke vs nuke, spy vs spy thing that happened in the Cold War all the time. And maybe it is about prestige and appearances.  Or maybe it is about something I know nothing about. So welcome to the new Cold War.


Monday, August 8, 2016

Its Always So Depressing When the Russians Leave


I have mentioned this before, but it happened again. Every few months or so, maybe every 4-6 months, the Russians seem to come to my blog. I love them because my view count goes through the roof and I feel appreciated and loved even if it is fake, which it is. Or at least, almost certainly is. I suppose it could be possible that some Russian English class is using my blog as a way of learning eccentric English.

But probably, it is just some bot on a regular circuit based on some criteria that I could only guess at which hits my blog, extracts all the content as juice, and then goes away.

But I miss them, and I hate it when the blog goes back to its normal daily view count.

Monday, January 25, 2016

The Mystery of the Erudite Comment and Other Blog Notes


Every once in a while I get an indication that a far flung audience reads my blog. The evidence is nothing more than an erudite and informed comment by someone I do not know on the relevant post that the comment refers to.

Then nothing.

Silence.

How is it that the comment always seems to come within a month of my posting it? It is likely that the commentator has found the post from Google, in which case one might expect that the comment could come anytime, and not just immediately after I post it.

I am pretty sure that whoever is reading my blog, few of them are my “friends”. Every once in a while I get an indication that a loyal friend is reading, but mostly its just dead silence.

My conclusion from this is as follows: First that it is just happenstance that the comment came soon after I posted it. Second, that whatever value I get from this blog, and I do get value, is not because of my friends reading it. Whoever is reading it, if anyone, are probably people I do not know, for the most part.

The Russians are back and they are very welcome. At least someone is pinging my blog, whether or not anyone is reading it.

Nevertheless, I hope that it is a net benefit to whoever does read it and I hope they will continue doing so. The thought that people in my field would give a hoot what I think or how I am is idle fantasy, I am sure.

In other words, to any of you who are considering writing a blog: I encourage you to do so but not because of any short term benefit, or encouragement, or fame in this world. Whatever value it has, in the short run at least, involves your own moral improvement that comes as a result of making the effort and the hope that somehow this work will help make the world a better place, in the unforeseeable future.


Sunday, October 11, 2015

The Russian Pageview Anomaly on Global Wahrman


Something rather odd has happened to the Global Wahrman pageview statistics over the last few days. Although these events are as yet unexplained, no reasonable person could look at them and not see the influence of some covert menace, a menace that may even at this moment be conspiring against the Free World and Democracy.   

Although I try not to obsess about my audience, like any writer I am gratified to have an audience at all. Google/Blogspot provides several mechanisms to track one's readership and from the very beginning I noticed a certain underlying activity, a murmur if you will from such places as Ukraine, Bulgaria, Romania, Georgia, Armenia, China, Montenegro, Serbia, Albania, Pakistan and of course Russia.

But as time went by and as I presumably built up a readership, this poking and occasional comment spam reduced until I barely noticed it.

Well in the last three days, someone in Russia seems to have become very, very interested in Global Wahrman, to the point where it far overshadows my normal readership. In fact it overwhelms the exceptional readership that happens from time to time (such as when someone in France seemed to notice my post about SIGGRAPH (see here) and my pageviews from the country that invented Semiotics skyrocketed for a week or so which makes a certain sense to me, somehow.

But Russia all of a sudden can't seem to get enough of Global Wahrman. Could this be Putin interested in the history of Computer Animation?  Perhaps they are interested in my analysis of secret aerospace programs? Or on the archaeology of the Cold War?  Am I being recruited by Russian Secret Intelligence?

Should I mysteriously disappear or hang myself in my cell, please notify the appropriate authorities that I may be a victim of some sort of Russian conspiracy.

[10/12/2015 The interest in Global Wahrman from Russia is continuing.  I wonder why?]


Is that you, Vladimir, reading my blog?



Wednesday, July 29, 2015

Has One of John Holland's Submarines Been Found?


One of the problems with being mortal is that you do not know how some stories end and one might really want to know. In science of course, this is obvious but maybe more dramatic than people realize. For those of us of a romantic nature, in the classical sense of romance, there are an amazing number of such stories. Where lies a missing ship? What happened to that expedition. For those of us with a particular interest in matters that involve what is called “intelligence”, then we are well aware that it is unrealistic to expect to know the real story for at least 50 years or more and most of us will not be alive by then.

The age of exploration, however you might define it, is filled with such stories. War, for better or worse, is filled with such stories. Sometimes no one survived to tell what happened. A missing platoon, a missing airplane, no one knows what happened or where. Then 50 or 100 years later a wrecked airplane is found in a field in the middle of the Ukraine or at the bottom of a lake and we have closure.

Some mysteries are partially solved, of course. If an airliner goes missing for over a year and no person or piece of that airplane is found, then you can be quite sure that a tragedy has happened even if we do not know what it was, where, when or why. If a ship goes on patrol and is never heard from again, then unless it really did go to the Twilight Zone or on vacation with the Space Aliens then something very bad has happened.

Sometimes you know in general what happened but not exactly where, and the bodies of your friends are never recovered.

Last week something happened off the coast of Sweden that helps to complete one of these stories. It happened in a somewhat amusing way (assuming the death of sailors can ever be said to be amusing). Sweden has recently been troubled by what they believe are incursions by Russian submarines up to some mysterious activities in Swedish waters. Their Navy believes that they tracked such a submarine for quite a while and that it may have escaped. The defense budget has been increased, people are on the lookout, there have been all kinds of false sightings.

Then, a week or so ago, a diver found a wrecked submarine off the coast within Sweden territory. A private firm was engaged by Sweden to investigate and found the wreck of a Russian submarine which went down with all hands. They thought the submarine looked modern, and they assumed it was a modern Russian midget / spy submarine, perhaps on a mission, perhaps being tested, and that it had experienced some disaster.

They were right that the submarine was Russian and that it had gone down with all hands.  Two officers and 16 crew.  Furthermore, the submarine was approximately 20 meters by 3 meters in size, very cramped quarters.

But it was not a modern Russian submarine. It is almost certainly a submarine in the Imperial Russian Navy which went down and which was lost with all hands in 1916. Not only that, but this may be a very famous submarine.





A model of the Royal Navy's Holland 1.  This would not be the same submarine design as the one that has been found, but it would be similar.  .


As readers of my blog know, the history of submarines is deeply interconnected with our culture, especially the tradition of American Musical Theatre. What you may not realize is that the people who built the original Russian submarines were Americans (well, immigrants to America) from Connecticut.  Designed in America, the first of class was built by Holland's Electric Boat Company, shipped to Russia, and assembled there.   

To briefly recap the history of submarines, they were a technology that came to fruition very early in the 20th century and which saw a lot of contributions from all over the world.  One of the pioneers of this field was John Holland, an immigrant to America from Ireland, who designed and built what is recognized as the first modern submarine.  That is, it was the first to have the important design elements that a modern submarine would have for the next 50 years.  Furthermore, he founded the company that built these submarines for many different countries, including the United States, Great Britain, and Imperial Russia.

In many ways the development of the submarine was similar to the development of the airplane.  It was an international development that achieved success at the beginning of the 20th century and was being used in a major war within a decade.  Airplane use has wildly expanded of course but submarine use, although in most navies worldwide, remain an eclectic tool used mostly for military and research purposes. 

Here is a biography of John Holland in the US Navy's Undersea Warfare magazine: 
http://www.navy.mil/navydata/cno/n87/usw/issue_19/holland.htm

The first of the Som class was built in Connecticut, shipped to Russia, and assembled there. This may be that submarine. If so, there is other history here as this submarine may be the repurposed Fulton, an early Holland design that was built and then sold to Russia.   The articles suggest that is the case, but I am withholding judgment until we know more.

The sailors who manned that submarine are almost certainly still inside having gone down with the ship. In a submarine, this is fairly easy to determine without looking very hard.  If a submarine is at the bottom of the sea and its hatches are still closed, then very likely no one got out.  When leaving a distressed submarine, very few sailors bother to close the hatch behind them.

_________________________________________


Notes:

John Philip Holland on Wikipedia

Wikipedia articles on the discovery and the Som Class of Submarines

News story on a possible fragment from Amelia Earhart's plane


Saturday, May 23, 2015

Introducing Siberian Times and News of Massive Musk Oxen Baby Boom


When I despair of reading news of interest in our provincial and boring news media, I remember that often the most important news is local, and through the events in the lives of people in these fascinating and foreign venues the real humanity of the world is revealed.

Furthermore, when our major news outlets are so humorless except for especially selected “humor providers”, some of the people of the world recognize the odd situation they are in and play on it, usually with a straight face.

Such is the case with the very interesting and somewhat remote Siberian Times (www.siberiantimes.com).

Whenever I have visited the Siberian Times over the last few years, perhaps every six months or so, I have been rewarded with a series of articles and topics that are interesting and often well photographed.


Musk Oxen in a circle


In the current instantiation, we have articles about a baby boom among Musk Oxen, the secret mating rituals of rare Siberian leopards, an analysis about whether a recent meteor was shot down by a helpful UFO (with excellent comments), an excellent pictorial about a Siberian coal mine and an alarming article about out-of-control pond scum on Lake Baikal.


Comment about the Space Brothers


I have added the Siberian Times to the list of selected news media.


Musk Oxen

Secret Mating Rituals of Siberian Leopards

UFO / Meteor Discussion (see comments at end)

Secrets of the Universe to be Sought from Lake Baikal



Down in the Siberian coal mine