Who Has the Best Failed State?

I could use some help figuring out what we believe the long term deaths and wounded statistics of the Chernobyl disaster. Chernobyl is the gold standard by which to measure the failure of a government to cope with a crisis and the long term effects of their incompetence. But its hard to get good numbers of the long term deaths and wounded of Chernobyl. There are reasons for this beyond mere suppression of the facts for political purposes (like we find in this country). They may be trying to avoid despair which causes death through other self inflicted wounds such as tobacco and alcohol. If you believe you are going to die of radiation poisoning anyway why not smoke another pack of cigarettes a day and drink more vodka?

I am pretty sure though that America and a few other countries like Brazil can proudly say that their failed governments have been much more incompetent and caused many more deaths than the USSR and successor states. In fact, the Republican response may still be killing a Chernobyls worth of their own citizens every 100 days. Oddly, these deaths of the last six months are restricted almost entirely to the unvaccinated, who are almost all Republicans. This will not affect elections since voter suppression and the supreme court's destruction of voter rights have the intent and effect of delegitimizing elections and installing more right wing thugs like Trump and is self perpetuating. But the reports I have read suggest that the USSR and successor countries have devoted and still devote huge resources to social and medical welfare to people in the various affected regions even when it is likely that they were not affected. Our country, with its corrupt right wing judiciary, throws people on the street if they are 3 days late on rent. I had to hear a lot of shit about how bad communism was and how great western democracy is. Not so sure about the former but about the latter I can be quite sure. We laugh at people saying that under Socialism an NKRP reactor (or whatever) cant explode. Well in this country we have trump and the moron republicans (there are only republicans, the people who oppose them and a third group which is passive) saying the virus is a hoax, that the democrats are using it to defeat trump, who is the chosen one, that the virus is just bad flu, that quinine water or horse tenderizer will keep you from getting bad virus, and that there has never been a time when any american has been forced to exercise basic public health protocols (because the people saying it are too stupid to know about the history in this country of cholera, yellow fever, basic sewage, speed limits and water controls, etc). The Republicans did this, and caused what will be no less than a million unnecessary deaths (we are very close to that number now).

Shouldnt I be hearing a lot of people talking about the failures of the western democracy and capitalism?

 

 

 

100 Vectors Should Do It

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Now, with the supreme court (illegitimate) ruling on freedom of religion in a pandemic, for a hostile power to spread a virus in this country it will simply be a matter of sending a certain number of people to visit churches and synagogues, perhaps a different one each week. Then it wont matter how much this nation shuts down, the infection will still spread. If the virus has a long incubation and a higher fatality rate, the results could be spectacular. It will probably require the resources of a nation state to do this. But hey, there are quite a few out there that have that motive and opportunity.

Jim Houston and Donald Trump's Policies

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At the end of March, Jim Houston died in the hospital after what was apparently several days of severe respiratory distress. We had to break into his house to find him, he lasted a few hours at the hospital. They were not sure if it was respiratory, a stroke, a heart attack, or something else. Jim was in good health, although he was overweight. He was 62 years old. He was a member of various Academy and ASC committees and so would every week be at some social event, such as the ASC clubhouse where there would be perhaps 50-100 people in close quarters.

At the time, COVID-19 tests were not readily available, nor were his doctors particularly sensitive to the fact that COVID-19 mortality was not just respiratory (like the flu) but could indeed show such effects as what Jim died of (ie stroke, heart failure, neurological). So we do not have formal tests that prove that Jim died of COVID-19, but we all think he did. I am told that the state of CA may indeed go back and check to see, how they do that I do not know, but I presume that they have blood samples in the freezer.

Jim was one of my best friends.

There are some things I think are reasonable to conclude from this.

First, that the official numbers are low. I know at least two people who died of the coronavirus who are not on the official death statistics. Jim was not tested and the second person tested negative which makes his friends scratch their heads because if he did not die of the coronavirus we dont know what he died of (heart attack the day before he was going to be hospitalized for severe respiratory symptoms).

Second, Trump was warned by the CIA and others of the danger of a pandemic in January at the very latest, if I understand the situation. Had he warned the American people, and had people known not to congregate in the March time frame, and were told to wear a mask, I am sure that Jim Houston would not have died at that time. Maybe he would have gotten the virus later, maybe we all will, maybe we will die of it eventually, but not at that time.

Therefore, I blame Trump and his policies for my friends death and I do not take kindly to those who push theories that you dont have to wear a mask. I dont know what is going on in Sweden, but I sure as hell know what is going on in the USA and I dont think this is funny or subtle.

Thank you.

 

Raising My Estimate of the Deaths from COVID-19

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I am raising my highly scientific estimate of American deaths from the coronavirus up from 200K to 288K. The world class logic (dry sarcasm, sorry) that I use for this estimate is as follows.

The WaPo death count for Americans as of this morning is 96,000. But we know the number is low because not all deaths from COVID-19 are officially marked as such for a number of different reasons, some benign, some less so. The estimates for an adjustment factor range from 1.25 to 2.0 although I have seen higher. Lets take a relatively conservative 1.5. That means that we are currently at 144,000 deaths. It seems likely to me, even optimistic, that we can expect an equal number of deaths going forward as we try to manage this thing although of course the future is uncertain. On the one hand we are getting better at testing, and know a lot more about how to treat the disease (although still not doing so great there, we are certainly getting better). On the other hand, it is likely that social distancing really did help (with regional variation) but different areas are opening up now and it would be a miracle if this did not cause local hot spots. A couple of good church meetings and political rallies can infect hundreds of people who will then spread the virus at the very least to their immediate family. The rallies in Michigan of the guys with guns and calling for people to resist the Mark of the Beast came from all over the country, I read, and we know some of them were infected. A vaccine in the next 12 months would be amazing, and I think has a low probability of happening, although it is certainly possible if we get lucky.

So it seems fair to me that if we had some N deaths getting to this point, and since we are nowhere near done, and at best we are at some sort of peak, then it is likely that we would have at least that many taking the curve down assuming that the curve is symmetric, which it may not be. Thus 2 * 144,000 = 288,000. At least.

I have been pretty good at predicting this so far, through my flakey back of the envelope estimates but hopefully I am wrong this time and it will just go away as the Great Leader who Knows All Things predicted.

Look! My Lyft Driver Gave Me a Mask!

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My Lyft driver, a nice Hispanic lady, had a very limited supply of masks and she offered me one.  At first I refused but she wanted me to have it.  I gave her a big tip but that isnt what matters.  What matters is that people help each other in a time of crisis.  

Unlike my friend David in LA who goes out of his way to infect people.

Me at Pharmacy in Montecito

Getting A Message to Richard Edlund, Somehow

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I just want to get a message to Richard Edlund, ASC, somehow.  I know he is on the Board of Governors of the Academy.  Anyway I want to make sure and hope that he is taking care of himself in these challenging times.  And to thank him for all the times he has been very kind to me.  He probably doesnt even notice, he is probably kind to everyone.  But it really has meant a lot to me over the years.