It may look like a garden, but its really more of a snake pit. Its not the paper thin walls, or the windows that have been painted over so many times that they will never open, or the termites, or the weird (unwritten) rules, or the obsolete electrical system, or the baroque legacy gas system where you are as likely to be paying for your neighbor's utilities as your own. Its not the suicides of which there have been two in recent years. Its the people. The smile to your face, stab you in the back people that is the problem here. The emotionally-challenged woman who thinks that every man lusts for her calves and complains about invasion of privacy when no such thing has occurred. Or the neighbor who sang Joni Mitchell songs at night whenever she got drunk (which was every night) but complained to management that I used the telephone. I didnt appreciate it when Management threw her out with 3 days notice, I think that she deserved more compassion than that, even if she had stabbed me in the back. But by far the worse part of this was the new landlady, one of those who is scared of computers and doesnt know much about them, and is willing to say the most appalling things in writing apparently too stupid to realize that she was letting both herself and the Magnolia in for an astonishing lawsuit that they would lose, if I did lawsuits, which I dont. And neither does my patron, whose guest I was. And so, may I advise you, dear reader, if you are considering the Magnolia to save yourself some trouble and go elsewhere. Life is too short.
Monday, September 20, 2021
Friday, September 17, 2021
Who Has the Best Failed State?
I could use some help figuring out what we believe the long term deaths and wounded statistics of the Chernobyl disaster. Chernobyl is the gold standard by which to measure the failure of a government to cope with a crisis and the long term effects of their incompetence. But its hard to get good numbers of the long term deaths and wounded of Chernobyl. There are reasons for this beyond mere suppression of the facts for political purposes (like we find in this country). They may be trying to avoid despair which causes death through other self inflicted wounds such as tobacco and alcohol. If you believe you are going to die of radiation poisoning anyway why not smoke another pack of cigarettes a day and drink more vodka?
I am pretty sure though that America and a few other countries like Brazil can proudly say that their failed governments have been much more incompetent and caused many more deaths than the USSR and successor states. In fact, the Republican response may still be killing a Chernobyls worth of their own citizens every 100 days. Oddly, these deaths of the last six months are restricted almost entirely to the unvaccinated, who are almost all Republicans. This will not affect elections since voter suppression and the supreme court's destruction of voter rights have the intent and effect of delegitimizing elections and installing more right wing thugs like Trump and is self perpetuating. But the reports I have read suggest that the USSR and successor countries have devoted and still devote huge resources to social and medical welfare to people in the various affected regions even when it is likely that they were not affected. Our country, with its corrupt right wing judiciary, throws people on the street if they are 3 days late on rent. I had to hear a lot of shit about how bad communism was and how great western democracy is. Not so sure about the former but about the latter I can be quite sure. We laugh at people saying that under Socialism an NKRP reactor (or whatever) cant explode. Well in this country we have trump and the moron republicans (there are only republicans, the people who oppose them and a third group which is passive) saying the virus is a hoax, that the democrats are using it to defeat trump, who is the chosen one, that the virus is just bad flu, that quinine water or horse tenderizer will keep you from getting bad virus, and that there has never been a time when any american has been forced to exercise basic public health protocols (because the people saying it are too stupid to know about the history in this country of cholera, yellow fever, basic sewage, speed limits and water controls, etc). The Republicans did this, and caused what will be no less than a million unnecessary deaths (we are very close to that number now).
Shouldnt I be hearing a lot of people talking about the failures of the western democracy and capitalism?
Sunday, September 12, 2021
Commentary on September 11th
I was in NYC on September 11th. By far the worst part was not that day, but the months afterwards as my fellow NYers put up posters acknowledging their loved one was missing. Literally everyone I knew in NY either knew someone in the two towers who died or was one person removed. Second, it is probably not well known outside of NY or maybe I am wrong about this: but no one actually knows how many people died in the collapse of the towers. Why is that, you may ask, its because there is illegal immigration in all areas of american life, and the financial industries are far from immune and when something bad happens, the family is not going to go to the police only to have ICE show up in a week or month to deport them. Finally, you make your guess at how many people died, then make a guess as to their average body weight, then realize that the clean up crews had to remove that much dead body parts that was layered through the wreckage. Do the math. You will be surprised.
Thursday, September 9, 2021
Dreams and Visions
Saturday, September 4, 2021
A Farewell to Scones
Saturday, August 7, 2021
Intelligence, Ambiguity and the SONY Hack
[Since I wrote this blog post, I came across evidence that maybe the NSA does actually know what happened. See https://www.nytimes.com/2015/01/19/world/asia/nsa-tapped-into-north-korean-networks-before-sony-attack-officials-say.html]
I had not realized that the DOJ had in fact filed a case against a mysterious Korean who N. Korea says does not exist. So while the USA may be ineffectual, and FBI Counterintelligence was not able to protect our poor, helpless SONY executives, we did step up to the plate to formally complain and so I retract my inflammatory statement that we did nothing. There isn't much they can do after the fact. The issues of N. Korea, who our government believes did this hack, see below, are complicated. We are already doing what we can short of war to rein those maniacs in. Our State Department's worst fear is that Kim is deposed and the whole sucking puddle of shit collapses and we have a real mess. We may look back in nostalgia to the days of Kim and SONY and say, "Wow, wasn't that great! We didnt know how great it was."
As outsiders to the world of intelligence, we can not really know with certainty what is going on, but if you pay attention, and watch over time, then there are things you can know, up to a point. Sometimes you may have to wait but even then it's not as if you can prove anything to everyone's satisfaction. There are classic examples here. We knew the government thought that Julius & Ethel Rosenberg were guilty but the real evidence, not the stuff presented in court, was withheld for 30 + years and that is one of the reasons that, decades later, they went public with Venona and many people still dont believe it. (1) Many cases are not brought to trial because the intelligence community is not willing to expose the evidence and by definition the sources. There are mysteries about the Ellsberg matter, mysteries that have never been resolved, that if anyone knows the answer to, they are not talking. Pretty much everyone thinks the Warren Commission was a coverup but of what? It was only recently that I finally heard a theory that I believe in... that it was a CIA fuckup but not the way most people believe. (2) But do I really know? Of course not.
N. Korea has proven to be a plucky little nation even if they are really annoying. They came this close to winning the Korean war at the beginning. They are probably behind one of the most successful counterfeiting operations in the history of counterfeiting. (3) And who can forget their recent sinking of a S. Korean destroyer? Or the assassination of a relative of Kim by secret agents? Or the fabulous operation using the Yakuza to steal from Japanese ATMs that involved a hack involving banks, special ATM cards and intense rules. (4) N. Korea has proven their capability in this area over and over again. They are a player in cybercrime and cyberwar. They have the capability to execute the SONY hack, many believe. But if not them, who?
Some believe that the hack was perpetrated by an individual or perhaps a small team of disgruntled SONY employees as an extortion plot and that the demand to withdraw the famous satirical film about a fictional Kim was just cover. I know that some cybersecurity officials believe that there is evidence that the hack was perpetrated by a state actor. These things are not all that subtle, you know. There is a level of skill and of effort over time that is found with state hacking operations in contrast to talented individuals or groups like Anonymous or private criminal groups. And generally each of these groups have a track record and leave a series of clues that indicate modus operandi.
I know that generally the DOJ does not file a case in this kind of thing unless they think they have enough evidence that can be presented in open court should it ever come to trial. But maybe they knew this would never come to trial so they decided to use this as a way to embarrass N Korea, which is basically impossible because they are shameless, but whatever. Cui bono? One could make a case for the disgruntled insiders who eventually released the material to make good their threat did it. And of course the N. Koreans could have done it and had motivation.
But do I really know, no I dont. If someone knows for sure, through unspecified intelligence sources, well I cant know about that. I havent seen the evidence and I am not qualified to evaluate it. In the absence of a plausible candidate or candidates for the insider theory, and for all I know there is such a candidate but no one is talking about it because it is defamation in the absence of good evidence, I think, then I propose that the most plausible candidate is N. Korea. I will probably never know for sure. That is the fate of most judgments or assessments that we make about intelligence matters. In the absence of a confession, and maybe not even then, we can not be sure.
1. A pretty good description is at https://www.osti.gov/opennet/manhattan-project-history/Events/1945-present/venona.htm. But if you dont believe it, then by all means go to the NSA site on Venona and there is much more detail. There are people who to this day deny that Ethyl knew what Julius was up to which is, frankly, ridiculous. There are others who say that even if they were spies, their work did not really help the Soviets. People will believe whatever they want to believe. I would not be surprised to hear that some people believe that Venona is a fake and was made up to frame the Rosenbergs. How could I possibly know?
2. An article I read by an academic who studies the JFK assassination believes that recently released evidence shows what some people believed at the time. That the CIA knew more than they were saying and that they had been tracking Oswald in Mexico City, had tapped his phone, knew that he had visited various embassies, knew that he was up to no good. Then instead of acting, or communicating their concerns to FBI Counterintelligence, they just dropped it. And when JFK got shot by their guy, Oswald, they knew that no one would believe that they had not had a hand in it or that they could be so stupid as to not warn anyone so they suppressed the information about how much they knew. That is one theory which may be supported by the evidence, but as you know, there is a lot of evidence and a lot of controversy about that evidence. It would take maybe a year, probably more, just to review the evidence that is public and form some sort of conclusion that is actually informed.
3. This is so much harder to do than most people realize. Yes, North Korea, may have had help. I certainly hope so. And N. Korea is not the only source of these dollars. See https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Superdollar.
4. See https://www.newyorker.com/magazine/2021/04/26/the-incredible-rise-of-north-koreas-hacking-army
Suicide Squad and Little Birdies
Tuesday, July 27, 2021
Murder and Bipartisanship
Not going to do a great job here so work with me. Global climate change will make life miserable for possibly billions of people, it has already affected hundreds of millions. But the cause of this disaster, our political elites and the elites that control them, is decades in the making, and those who are most guilty will live their lives in nearly perfect security, although their children will hate them for their greed because they will know the real story even if they dont admit it. But in this country we are watching a hideous little corrupt nightmare in real time in which the followers of the Republican cult are the victims of the latest coronavirus variant, sweeping through the unvaccinated like a sword of gods vengeance wielded by an angel of justice, who beg for the vaccine as they are intubated at the hospital, cursing the republican murder swine who lied to them and begging for their lives. And you can be sure that the failed and corrupt justice system of this country will not do a damn thing about it, this deliberate murder of thousands if not 10s of thousands if not more of the stupid followers of this so called political party. Probably only those who die or their relatives will see in its true horror what was done to them, but those of us who are not members of the cult have to watch this horror and know for certain that the murder of our fellow citizens will not be avenged. And then there will be a call for "bipartisanship" that we should compromise with these murderers who only want to destroy this country. Who, therefore should we negotiate with? Can we not at least demand that they elect new leaders as the old ones, the Ted Cruz's and McCarthys and so forth, have hands dripping with blood. Shall we negotiate with them? About what, exactly?
A little melodramatic, true, but you get the point. And what is beautiful is that while Trump killed a half million Americans, they were from all political beliefs. But now his representatives in federal and state legislatures and the pundits from hell spout deadly venom and kill their own followers.
What philosophy should I use to explain this? Platonic? Liberalism? Laissez Faire capitalism?
Sunday, July 25, 2021
The Move Continues and the State Fails
Thursday, July 15, 2021
What the words really mean to the poor
When someone tells you about a housing authority or talks about punctuation or suggests you find a job on the internet, what they are really saying is fuck you.
Sunday, July 4, 2021
Enver Pasha at the Al Aqsa Mosque
Friday, July 2, 2021
Saturday, June 12, 2021
Blogger Damaged by Latest Release
Why are these companies so bad at software? I dont know, but it looks like they do not do minimal testing and they do minimal, if any, design reviews. My guess is that they know better but have budget limitations. Just a guess.
Friday, June 11, 2021
Marvel and Body Armor for Women
Here are two examples of body armor from concept sketches found on the Internet.
Tuesday, June 8, 2021
Rand 1700 Main Street Re-creation
A real time simulation of the early RAND buildings at 1700 Main Street in Santa Barbara. This is a screenshot from version 53.
It runs best in Google Chrome by the way, but it will run in any browser that has WebGL enabled. It may take a few seconds to load textures.
https://mwahrman.com/dist_053/rand_0_53.html
Sunday, June 6, 2021
Something to Like About Right Wing Judges
draft
Tuesday, June 1, 2021
Letter to a Friend
draft
Sunday, May 23, 2021
What We Learned About the Law from Donald Trump
draft
Thursday, May 20, 2021
Several New Blogs To Start
Friday, May 7, 2021
Indicators of the Inevitable Collapse
draft
You may wish to read this post about assumptions. See http://globalwahrman.blogspot.com/2021/05/assumptions-are-mother-of-all-fuckup.html
In the last 3-6 months I have gone from cautious optimism to genuine pessimism. I needed to see how Biden worked out, and of course that is better than expected. But there are other "indicators" to use a phrase from nuclear deterrence that are really not good. I use "indicator" in the sense of something like "N Korea is attacking us again verbally, but they are not on alert, they are not on maneuvers, and they have not started shelling the DMZ, they are probably not going to attack us this week".
But the indicators I see are more like this, "The Republicans really do capture about 45 percent of the vote, sometimes more, sometimes less, even without voter suppression. Furthermore, those voters really are 75% or so supportive of Trump which is astonishing and very troubling. And although there are variations in that support and the reasons for it, those reasons include such things as living in a delusional world about very important topics (note, not merely uncaring or indifferent, but genuinely delusional and with strong opinions) and supportive of policies that are really bad, really dangerous, and they dont mind, in fact, they insist on it. " Another reason why Trump has such strong support is that he is overtly and unambiguously racist and they like that. A third reason is that most of his supporters are anti-science and are perfectly happy to believe whatever garbage they are fed by the right wing press. Or for example, "Republicans have no trouble setting up barriers to voting for people of color, and people who are working class, and people who are financially disadvantaged or disabled. In fact, they are determined to do this, period, in any state they control, and that means since the elections are usually close that they will win those elections, continue control of the statehouses, regain control of the houses of congress, and probably elect a president over the will of the people." Or, "Biden has no chance of passing any bill through the senate as long as the filibuster exists. Every bill will be blocked. That is what McConnell says he will do, and that is what they have done and will do. Nothing short of a miracle will change that. If we lose the senate, even nominations for important posts wont be approved." Or "I watched Republican Congressman and Senators violate the law in egregious ways that damaged our national security, and they were not punished. See the incidents involving outing the whistleblowers. This means our government is impotent, and can not even enforce the most important and most serious of laws, and that elected congressmen are willing and determined to damage our country to achieve their goals of power".
If we really controlled the senate, then this would be different, perhaps, but we dont. We will lose the next election because the election will be stolen. Another 4 year period or 2 year period where the Republicans can do what they like will complete the destruction of the country for a minimum of 30 years, or longer.
Wednesday, May 5, 2021
Assumptions Are the Mother of All Fuckups
draft
These problems of "decline and fall" are too big to reduce to emails, because a complete discussion of any topic would be exhausting to write and tiresome to read. My doom and gloom has some unstated assumptions that might make the conclusions seem more reasonable or at least understandable.
First, we are always talking about probabilities not certainties. But that is very important for planning because a 10% chance of destroying the world is something to pay attention to even if it doesnt happen. Second, all models are wrong but some models are useful. Third, the notion of "enlightened self interest" and the "rational actor" theories of economic and political decision making does not have a great track record. Therefore arguments based on these assumptions do not have a lot of credibility with me unless substantiated by other data. Fourth, in the debate between the "conspiracy" vs "screw up" explanations of events its important to remember that the correct answer is usually "both". Fifth, although both people and organizations can change, in general they dont, and past behavior can usefully be used to predict the immediate and distant future of behavior. This can be stated biblically "As it is at the beginning, so it is at the end". Sixth, trust must be earned, and the higher the stakes, the more it must be earned or controlled for. Seventh, I expect to be able to learn from my mistakes. Eighth, with great power comes great responsibility but there is a reason for this, and that is because you really can make things better or worse in many (but not all) cases. Ninth, the past isnt over, it isnt even past yet. Tenth, every great power has declined but stupidity can always make things worse.
These assumptions, when applied to the last 20 years, leads to some predictions and they are not good.
Thursday, April 22, 2021
Failed US Govt Unable To Investigate Jan 6 Insurrection
Tuesday, April 20, 2021
One More Time Blogger is Not Supported
Friday, April 9, 2021
Santa Barbara, The Police and Racism
I am a guest here in beautiful santa barbara, but maybe the reality is that our world is imperfect and there are problems everywhere. There were two recent events here at the [REDACTED], none of which involved me, and which I did not know about until they were over. Things are calm now. Both of these involved the police. In one case, a police officer told our landlady that if so and so had been black she would have been on the ground with his knee on her neck. I guess they are very proud of the recent murder involving a black man and that maneuver. Our landlady was shocked by this overt racism in someone who is expected to respect and abide by the law. In another case, one of our nicest people here was thrown in a retaining cell (on Figueroa) for a day with a broken arm. The cell was filthy, with bugs (bed bugs?) and she was denied medical attention (her arm was obviously broken) and was told to shut up and stop asking for it. I did not witness any of this. I am not completely shocked but yes I am disturbed and disappointed. I know from recent discussions with my elected county supervisor that they could not care less what I think. What, if anything, would you like me to do with this information. I make it my policy to avoid the police as much as possible. Shall I forget about this? Would it be so (deleted) hard to keep the holding cell minimally clean and avoid making racist comments in public and maybe if someone has a broken hand to get her a nurse and some Tylenol? Maybe Santa Barbara is a poor inner city slum and cant afford such things? I am here as your guest and I feel I should ask you. My policy in general is fight or flight (protest injustice or put a bag over my head).
Thursday, April 8, 2021
Another Helpful Message for my Congressman
Sunday, April 4, 2021
Excellent Statute of Limitations on Suing Government Agencies
draft
I admit that I am impressed with some of the things I learn about how our government works. So for example if you want to have a dictatorship but pretend you don't have a dictatorship and you want to pretend that you have a justice system and that people can file a lawsuit to get the government to do something reasonable, or to stop committing what are obviously crimes, then all you have to do is put in a 6 month statute of limitations which would be nearly impossible for most people to comply with unless this is what they did for a living and they had plenty of resources and they had a law firm ready to go which I think we can comfortably say doesn't happen. At least private individuals are unlikely to be able to comply with this requirement but possibly mid- to large- corporations could. Thus corporations are able to protect themselves, or at least have a tool that might allow them to protect themselves, but the private citizen not so much.
In that way you can see the corruption and crimes of the government can operate with complete freedom. This is most excellent. Obviously if we wanted a free society this rule would not exist.
(Policy Recommendation #2: Change or eliminate this statute of limitations).
Friday, April 2, 2021
Therapy and the Winter Soldier
draft
Not everyone appreciates the great depth and intelligence that can be found beneath the surface of the Marvel Cinematic portrayal of comic book superheroes, and its faithful and wry discussion of the many contradictions of our civilization as portrayed by Iron Man, Captain America, Thor and so forth. The latest MCU Disney + series (The Falcon and the Winter Soldier) has the setup that the Winter Soldier (a nice guy who was forced/programmed to be an assassin during the cold war) has to see a therapist as a condition of his parole.
I think it is completely hilarious and I so relate since I also have PTSD and really do not see much point about talking about it with a therapist.
Sunday, March 28, 2021
Policy Series #1 Solution to Part of Immigration Problem
Saturday, March 27, 2021
To Supervisor Das Williams Regarding Georgia
| 7:49 PM (0 minutes ago) |
| |||
the fascist Coca Cola and Delta Airlines. Can you reassure me that
the County of Santa Barbara buys nothing from Coca Cola, Delta or
anywhere in the State of Georgia? The best way to reach me is through
michael.wahrman@gmail.com. No answer will be a confession that SB
supports voter suppression and I will vote accordingly at the next
election.
Monday, March 22, 2021
The Gun Nuts Shall Prevail, Oh Yes
draft
I can just hear the morons, the Republicans, say "Now is not the time to discuss gun restrictions" and all the nuts screaming "2nd Amendment!!!" How long will we permit Americans to be murdered by the gun nuts? This is America, a failed state, where democracy is destroyed and where the Republicans advocate the violent overthrow of the government, so we may never have elementary gun laws. Too bad.


















