Before You Predict The Future, A Few Notes on Technique

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So once upon a time, in sixteenth century France, a third generation converted Jew took a pen name, Nostradamus, and made a living writing popular non-fiction, that attempted to predict the future.  If we look more closely at his body of work and at why he has maintained the interest of many people over the years, there are some lessons to learn.

His most important non-fiction, from the point of view of making a living as an author, was, I think, his Almanacs.  If you think about it, an Almanac is  a collection of knowledge about the past intended to be of use to those whose livelihood is based upon events in the near future.  Anyone in the classic business of agriculture would fall into this category. What is the best day for planting? When do the rains come?  When is the Summer Solstice?

But of course his notoriety comes from his more obscure, long term predictions that have been used to predict the end of the world, etc.  There are some lessons from his work that I think are of interest to anyone who might want to predict the future.

First, some basic "facts", if anything about this work is factual.  They were written as entertainment. They were written as 4 line poems, quattrains.  They were not written in the French of the time, although many people do not realize this.  They were written in an obtuse language that seemed like French but was actually a well known esoteric language known to alchemists and others. This was a useful way to avoid getting burned at the stake, by the way. And finally they were intended to not be usable to predict an event before it happened (which would be sorcery,  perhaps) but to be sufficiently detailed that when an event happened, you might believe that he had indeed predicted it.

This is a tricky business and not all that easy to do.  But here is an example made up on the spot.  Suppose I wrote a poem that said "The king will be killed.  The assassins bullet will strike home, who knew a library could be so evil?, the people mourn".  From this, you could not predict JFK was the subject.  But after the fact, you would say, "How did he know about the book depository?"

So going forward, as you predict things, keep that in mind.  Be specific, but in an obscure way.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nostradamus

The Best Way to Avoid Being Accused of ManSplaining

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Was just accused of mansplaining again. OK, fine. No more of that. The best way to avoid it is to not be in a position where I have to explain anything to insecure and unknowledgable women. Too fucking bad, I just wanted to help.

I guess I get what I deserve, or maybe not.

Do Vaccines Cause Alzheimers

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You have got to be fucking kidding me.

1. They dont know what causes Alzheimers.

2. So when you get some notice that taking a flu vaccine causes Alzheimers, you know right there that it is bullshit.

3. Where does this shit come from?

4. Why does anyone believe it?

Because people are stupid.

OK America, Make Me Proud

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Since the minority right wing will put their nutty boy on the Supreme Court today, there is no rule of law in this country.  So there is no law against killing politicians.

I checked with one of my favorite lawyers. It is absolutely within my rights of freedom of speech (if there were any law at all to matter) to say that I hope some patriot will kill some of these right wing senators.

Or maybe just kill their children.  After all, they dont care about our children, now do they. They are stupid but they do not know how stupid they are.

Too bad, it was a nice country once.

Letter to Sheila who Lives in London

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Dear Sheila.

1. America has always been a hypocritical and weird state, and completely unaware of it. Sadly, this has accellerated until now it is undeniably going to rip itself apart. The best scenarios are not good, and the worst are on deck right now. 2. As for a failed state, I think so, although few Americans might agree with us. The self denial is astonishing and worthy of many PhD thesis. 3. The failure however comes from many things, that is what would make it so interesting if I had even the slightest patience of desire to look at it objectively, I now want to discuss the concept of train wreck. 4. Train wrecks can be really great, all that momentum, the concept of going off the rails, the tragedy of all those dead people both on the train and merely nearby, the cars flying off in all directions to whack people hundreds of yards away. 5. Will we take others down with us. Already have, and more to come. Yes, the post WW2 order was going to end anyway, but the Russians and Trump have accelerated it by an order of magnitude, 6. As for global wahrman, let me say that controlling it was a long shot anyway, what I was hoping for was may yet be achieved: which is global disaster in my lifetime. Fuck all those people to come, I want to see Miami under water, I want to see the Potomac wash over its banks. Sure a few extra hundred million people will die but that is a small price to pay to shut those fucking global wahrman deniers up. 7. As for blaming me personally. Let me tell you, I have been crying like a prophet of old and no one has listened. I went to protest in Nov 2000 where were my friends. 8. But best of all is worst of all. They think they have won. They have no idea what the fuck they are doing. If I may give an example from American history, you might look up a famous date (famous to some of us): Dec 20, 1860. Those who voted on that day had no fucking clue how bad it was going to be and how many people would die because of their stupidity. 8. And that is the word I want to leave you with. Stupid, but they dont know they are stupid.

How are the kids?  When will you visit me?

MW

To My Friend Who Has Ghosted Me

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On the occassion of the right wing coup d'etat that is completed as of tomorrow, and since I dont feel I can in good conscience hold onto money you lent me, I plan to donate it to the political opponents of our new Republican masters.

Not sure who that will be, but probably whoever it is that is running against that fucking fascist Nunes and the nightmare from Maine, Collins.

I dont think you will mind if I do that although I might get a little extra pleasure if you did.

(Three donations: the opponent to Ted Cruz, Nunes and Collins).

The Metaphor of Pie, Slices of

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From a discussion with MK Haley in which she presented her metaphor that each of us was given slices of a pie, some larger than others, some smaller etc.  My response was.

I feel like I came late to the diner and all the pie was gone. When will you have another pie, I asked. She just shook her head. No more pie for you.

Now that McConnell has Destroyed The Justice System

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Republicans do not seem to understand that what is about to happen tomorrow is as significant as when secession from the Union happened. 

McConnell is using a bug in the constitution that says that he can say that he can put someone on the Supreme Court with a majority, but only 2/3rds can impeach a justice.  And they know that is nearly impossible.

Well, thats just not going to do for me.

So now what?

Well, we dont have a working justice system, so we need to look at ways that may technically be against the law, but in fact, are ethically well within our rights as citizens.

Too bad, huh.  I guess they fucked it up.

I Will Always Be Treated Badly

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Recent events have convinced me that, with one or two very important exceptions, people will always treat me badly.  Without these exceptions, I would be homeless or dead, so I am very grateful, believe me.

But everyone wants to be liked. Everyone wants to think that they are seen as valuable.  No one wants to be an impoverished outcast. 

It seems it does not matter how much I help, how nice I am, what I have contributed, what I might contribute, nothing.  People will treat me like shit.

I will try to help people understand things they clearly do not understand, and be as honest and as well meaning as I can be.  No doubt this will earn me another kick in the head.

If not for one or two people I would be homeless today.  I do not deserve being treated this way.

What It Means When People Treat You Like Garbage

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There is nothing like being in a position where people think that you can not help them, or that they do not have to be nice to you because they might want something from you.  Because under those circumstances you may find out what people actually think of you, or maybe you will learn something even more nasty: that many of your friends were shallow scum who get off on abusing people when they think they can get away with it.

And there is something about the last six months that has really brought out some of the most outrageous behavior.  But I think you will be OK.  I doubt I will ever get back into a position of success such that you might regret your actions.

But I am sorry to have to learn how arrogant and how self-entitled so many people I know turn out to be.  Yes, I am a little trusting but this is beyond that.  This is really an indication of how fucked up our society is.

This makes me sad.

Good luck to you guys and gals.

Windows 10 and Why I Hate Microsoft

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I am trying to install Windows 10 Home Edition on a USB drive.  I am installing from a USB flash drive.

The install program claims it will not install on a USB drive.  This is just fucking bug nuts by the way.  Linux has been able to install to a USB drive since soon after USB was invented.  I mean, what the fuck?

I called MS Support and "chatted" with two very nice people of the Indian subcontinent who really did try to help.  But the situation was way too far outside their comfort zone so no progress was made. MS Support thinks that if I partition the USB drive that it might work.  I cant imagine why and I have no particular way to do that here that would give me any confidence that I would do what it is that they need.

So my questions are:

1. Is there a way to install Windows 10 Home Edition on an unformatted USB drive.  2. Would another edition of Windows 10 be able to do this?  3. If I install Windows 10 on this drive as a SATA drive, take it out and put it in a USB enclosure, will Windows 10 be able to boot successfully from it?  (BTW, this has nothing to do with the BIOS/UEFI so far as I know).

I am going to try a few experiments tomorrow and then I am going to give up on it, because I really dont need to run stupid software.

The Unitarian Resistance Movement

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As mentioned below, when my local Congressman's office had no idea why I would be concerned about the collapse of democracy in America, or why I would bother them, my elected representative with the issue, they sent me off to the Unitarians.  Go to the Unitarians, they said, maybe they can help you.

Well, it turns out that I live two blocks away from the Unitarian Church in town and they had a nice office with someone working and she thought the story was funny.  Well, she said, we do have a mailing list of people who are interested in doing things politically, and I can put you on that list if you like.

For those who like their history American, the Unitarians have pretty much always been a hotbed of progressive political activity in this country.

Natron: The Open Source Compositor

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I asked around for an open source compositor and no one knew of anything.  So much for my friends in the motion picture industry.

I looked on the Internet and found one.  It is called Natron.

Now the good news and the bad news:

1. Good news is that it seems to be very complete.

2. Good news is that it is easy to install on Centos.

3. Bad news is that the documentation sucks.  My guess is that there is a forum somewhere you are supposed to use, good luck finding it and using it.

4. My feeling, before much use, is that this is a very annoying but interesting tool and we are lucky to have it.  I recommend you download the source and keep it around because god only knows how long it will be around and "supported".

5. I am not going to add a link here because it will probably be out of date within nanoseconds.  Look it up yourself and good luck.

My Local Congressman

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Just for fun, I go to my local Congressman's office. As you can see, the notice on the door indicates that the door is locked at all times. So I knock and talk to a very confused woman who did not understand why I would be bothering them about this supreme court thing. We have nothing to do with that, she explained, as if to an idiot. I said I was concerned, she said, so? I wondered if they were organizing any protests. Now I could tell she was really worried. For all she knew, I would become violent at any moment. She redirected me to local Unitarian church, I guess her attitude was that it was stupid to approach one's congressman. I guess they were just too busy to worry about what a constituent thought about their government.

Gainful Employment, Society is At Fault

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Fragment of a larger essay.

I had the misfortune of working at RAND as a college drop out and being part of the early ARPA community, and that set expectations for the workplace which have not been met. Symbolics (an MIT AI Lab spinoff was part of this enlightened conspiracy, so was the MIT Media Lab in its earlier Architecture Machine form). I blame society because I was treated so well to begin with.

No Single Cause of the Disaster

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Every month or so since November 2016 I have read an analysis of why Trump (did not) win the election and each time someone says that "this is the true and only reason".  But it is almost certainly the case that no one reason can be identified for the simple reasons that (a) Trump won on a technical having lost the popular vote by a lot and (b) there were so many anomalies.

I maintain that nothing is clear, there was no single cause of this disaster. A failed constitution, right-wing voter fraud, independent and democratic voter indifference, a condidate who utterly failed to connect to an important part of the democratic base, the destructive influence of social media, russian intelligence disruption of the civic discourse, and of course collusion between the criminal right wing candidate with the foreign intelligence services all conspired to create a situation where a flawed constitution could be used to install a right wing thug as president. It was not one thing.

Gainful Employment, The Backstory

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Several friends have expressed concern about my lack of traditonal employment (or non-traditional employment) and have offered to help.  I appreciate their offer very much.  Its just that the situation is complicated and there are many things, boring things, that they do not or may not know.

But I want to thank everyone for thinking of me.  Yes, its important.  Yes, pretty much all my friends and certainly those who have volunteered to give me advice have probably done better than I in so many ways.

So lets go over some of these issues.

1. I made choices that resulted in taking risks.  Those risks did not pan out, and combined with unexpected health related issues, means that there are non-traditional gaps on my resume. The generic job opening can not accomodate this without special pleading.  Applying over the internet in some anonymous fashion will not work.

2. In fact, applying for a random job over the internet has never worked.

3. I generally have to think about a job before I apply for it.  Its important to me to feel as though, were I to get the job, that I would do well at it. But this approach does not match the "internet clusterfuck apply in quantity and pray" strategy.  That is right, it doesn't.

4. For better or worse, there are health considerations and not every job can accomodate these things.

5. Money has never been important.  What has been important has been the people I work with and the organization I work for.  Think RAND Corporation, Symbolics (MIT AI spinoff), MASS ILLUSION or the American Museum of Natural History. It can be hard to predict these things I admit.  I had a wonderful time consulting to Viacom in various guises, but that had to do with special circumstances and special people.

6. Its hard to be quanititative about this, but quite a few of my work experiences have involved being abused by management or my fellow workers.  But that would never happen in an elite place like RAND.  So it behooves me to work in such a place and avoid places where management does not protect its people.

7. You can learn technology all you want on your own, but being employable in a field means full time dedication and resources to learn and keep up with that specific field.  So you are not just going to be a web developer, you are going to dedicate your life to web development if you want a job in it. I dont want a job in it.

8. Regarding entrepreneurial activity.  I decided I did not want to try that again with out money.  Now that I have learned that getting a job is impossible, I may as well have abused myself through stupid attempts to be entrepreneurial without money.  It would have been more fun.  Live and learn, I guess.

I could go on, but there is no point.  If you want to help, the best way to do so is to introduce me to someone who might have some project or position where there might be a fit.  A few friends have tried this and it has almost worked, or worked for short periods.  But sadly it has not worked in the long run.

I appreciate your time very much.

Further Thoughts on the Google / DOD / AI Controversy

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On further reflection, I am taking back my criticism about the whole Google/US Military kerflop (if thats a word).  I thought it was odd for employees of Google to refuse to do an AI military project given the role of the US Military (aka DARPA) in inventing and supporting AI and in particular computer science at Stanford.  But now I think they have a very reasonable point to make, or might be making, since after all, I dont really know what people at Google think, since what I know comes from the news media and has not gone into much depth.

Several people who know at least as much as I do about the history of AI and post war computer science dispute my assertion(s) about the role of the military elite in the creation of those fields, and the fact is that all I have are my impressions, not the result of serious research into the details of what I think I know on the subject.  So often in the past my impressions have been entertaining but by no means the whole story.

But even if I have a minor point to make about the history of science and technology, other considerations far outweigh this.

These considerations include (a) Our military has been voluntary since Vietnam, so it should certainly be the case that wherever original funding may have come from, people should be able to choose whether or not they work on a military project.  (b) When they chose Google there was absolutely no reason to think that they would be involved in such a project (directly at least, indirectly is another kettle of fish), (c) Google is an international company and their reputation and success may depend on not being perceived as being directly involved with the military, any military, given the bad reputation such militaries have, (d) Other companies that work for the federal government directly (e.g. by taking contracts with the IRS or the DOD) generally set up a separate company or division to deal with such things.  Thus their employees can make the conscious choice to work with such a company or division or not.  I am sure that not all such choices may be entirely voluntary (e.g. we have a project for you over here, you can take the project or be unemployed) but even so, it gives people fair warning about what is up.  And last, but not least, (e) As much as I respect our military, it is the tool  of our political elite, and our elite has been involved in questionable military adventure after adventure in my lifetime.  However much I may respect various aspects of our military, which is iteslef a long discussion, there can be no argument that they are often put to the most appalling use and it is completely reasonable to try and live ones' life without out being involved in such things, at least as much as is possible given that we must all swim in the same ocean.

Finally, and last but not least, to the best of my knowlege, Google has been very open about their work and research, and there is nothing preventing another company from doing this sort of work.  In fact, since working with the US Government is such a complicated thing to do, it is likely that this other company (whether new or existing) might do more of what the DOD really needs.

In other words, even if I maintain (provisionally) my point about the history of technology, there are plenty of other reasons for Google to abstain from this work if their employees so request.

This post is just a work in progress and its very clear to me I dont know the whole story.

Droll or Not I Plan to Continue

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Whether or not I am droll, or mean spirited, or whatever I am being called these days, I am sorry to have to report that I plan to keep on expressing myself.  Yes, I knew it was a danger that people would actually get to know what I am like, but that was known going in and so here we are.

I seem to attract people who want to abuse me because of my good nature.  And yes I have been damaged by such people.  But I will keep speaking out, anyway.  Why not?

I definitely get treated badly.

The Horror of Counter Intelligence Under Trump II

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Can you imagine the horror of being in American Counter Intelligence and realizing that the people you work for, the President and the Congress, are made up of traitors who are working with a hostile foreign power to destroy your country?

Scarlett.Magnolia

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Names are very important to me, as are concepts and symbols.

I have named my new server for machine learning Scarlett, after Scarlett Johannson.  The local domain is named Magnolia, for the complex I am living in here in Santa Barbara.

Scarlett.Magnolia.

The Horror of Counter Intelligence Under Trump I

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The role of counter-intelligence is to prevent the work of foreign intelligence agencies to gather information or take hostile action against our country.  For example, when Russian manipulated and threw the 2016 election to that traitor Trump, this was a failure of our counter-intelligence.

And they know it.

But they also know that they work for Congress, and that Congress is run by Republicans and Republicans in Congress are well known to be traitors who want to destroy this country and throw elections to the people the Russians want.

This is the nightmare of any intelligence agency.  What if their bosses are traitors working for the enemy.  If you did not know this, read Tinker Tailor Soldier Spy by John LeCarre.

So we are fucked, and they know we are fucked, because of the Republicans.

The Driver Safety and the GRE

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For those who care about my progress, we have two updates.  The first is that the DMV Driver Safety office reports that they have received my "doctor evaluation" but there are no notes yet.  It takes two to three weeks of business days to reply and they received the notes on August 15.  The second is that I registered for the GREs and discovered (a) Santa Barbara does not give these tests, but that they can be found in Ventura and Santa Maria and (b) Ventura is nearly sold out for the month of September, so I am likely to go to Santa Maria (which is an hour away).

What I Learned From My Trip Where I did Not Enter Canada or Attend Siggraph

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This post will be added to over the next few days as I assembled my notes.

1. Only those who are working or have a sponsor can attend Siggraph.

2. Canada has some very reasonable rules for those who would cross their borders.  Sadly I did not know those rules.

3. The US Border Patrol was also unhelpful and much more rude.  (Canada was very polite while they were f*cking me).

4. The rules for crossing into Canada used to be having a passport and a good attitude. Today those rules include but are not limited to having a whole bunch of money on you (I use ATMs), having a clear plan for when you are returning and having that plan on paper (I was not sure when I was returning), having a clear plan for where you were staying (I planned to find the least expensive hotel at the last minute, like everyoene else).  Etc.

5. So they fucked me, and the implications of that go on and on.  Shame on me for trying to attend my professional conference.

Maybe Write A Letter / Email to Grassley

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Perhaps today or tomorrow would be good time to write a letter to Sen Grassley (R-Hell) and remind him that since the Republicans lost the popular vote, they dont really have a mandate to turn the Supreme Court into their private retro-fascist 1930s America. And that he should think long and hard about what is good for America and not just what is good for his rich friends. 

Because when Kavanaugh goes on the court there is some possibility that this whole house of cards comes down. Keep it up Republicans, you are sowing the wind and you will reap an impressive harvest.

Notes on Samsung Tab E

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I bought a Samsung Tab E 9.6 inches with 16 GBs of internal memory and 128 GBs of external storage.  These are random notes on setting up and learning how to use the device.

1. The battery charges amazingly fast and lasts a long time.

2. Setting up WiFi is easy.

3. The thing has a desire to set up every application with the most lenient privacy, guaranteeing that you will be exposing yourself to the world.

4. The desktop is filled with applications I do not want, do not use, and can not get rid of.

5. I try to increase the volume of the Amazon Music player and someone (the app? the OS?) tells me that it could damage my ears.  Jesus.

6. After a day of using I am impressed with the hardware but think that Samsung or whoever made the software for this thing needs to choke back their greed and let the user choose the software they want.

The New Flag of the Republicans

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I understand that the Republicans are considering running their candidates in November under the flag of Imperial Russia.  The double headed eagle is the heraldic symbol for power and empire, two of the most important guiding principles of our Republicans.

Double Headed Eagle on Wikipedia

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Double-headed_eagle

This is the Fate of All Traitors

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I want to be one of the first, if not the first, to regret that we still have the death penalty on the books in America in the context of the manifest treason in Washington.

Yes, its true in America, at least, we generally only apply the death penalty to the poor, the people of color, the disenfranchised, to punish them for being poor, or Black or Latino, etc.

How ironic, then, that the classic legal punishment for treason that results in the death of an American is the death penalty. Will Trump and Pence go to the chair? How about Nunes, Ryan, McConnell, Grassley?

"This is the fate of all traitors."

OH! If only they had not betrayed their country! If only we did not still have the death penalty on the books! Its too late now, whats done is done. Justice must take its course.

SAD!

The LeBron James Incident

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The latest Trump abomination has helped me to understand one of the great mysteries of our country: how such an incompetent, racist buffoon can keep his supporters.  So many supporters, what do they see.

The LeBron James incident should have been enough to get Trump impeached.  To recap, Trump attacked Mr. James and called him a "stupid n*gger".  Just about, not quite, but just about.  LeBron James is not only a self-made person, he has personally put 1,100 people through college.  Paid their tuition.  What has Trump done?  Inherited wealth, working with the deVoes criminal to destroy education for all but the rich.

Here is the theory.  The Trump supporters are those people who were angry that they did not go to college, and are resentful of the smarter people who did better than they.  And they racist as hell.  And Trump delivers for them, every day.  Every goddamn day.  Trump is a racist moron, just like them.

And they like it.

Getting Our Spineless Representatives To Grow a Backbone

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Its fun to read about our spineless Democratic representatives terrified of speaking up for what they believe in, unless of course they dont believe in anything.

What we need is elected representatives who are willing to stand up to the right and demand freedom and sanity for us, their constituents.

Should we all be learning to use assault weapons and to make IEDs?  I go back and forth on this one. Since the supreme court has said that black people's votes do not count, what difference does it make if we vote?

Writing up Helpful Notes

Writing up a collection of notes for my friends of how to deal with the complete failure of the constitution and the collapse of our government.

I think I can do a very good job at convincing people to work within the system mostly if we can (a) change the constitution and (b) remove the scum from the judiciary.

Problem is, I dont think we can do either.

But dont worry, all it means is that about 100 million americans believe they live in a right wing dictatorship, and obviously our govenment could not care less what those Americans think.

When Did Amazon Become Insulting?

First it said you cant buy it because you are not Amazon Prime.  Then it said I could not buy it because this was reserved for carts of $25.00 or more.  Then it said that you had to type in your credit card number again because this is the first time you have ever shipped to an address.  It isnt. Then they said, hey look, you can save $6.00 on shipping if you sign up for something you dont want.

And of course there is no way you can contact a human, and it doesnt matter because big is beautiful and nothing will dislodge Amazon from destroying retail.

But what is extra weird about this little unhappy shopping experience is that I routinely, and I mean maybe twice a week, buy a kindle book and there is no problem.  None of this.  I think these people are weird and maybe just a little out of control.

Read What They Say

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A few years ago, the various blogs and forums were filled with Russian trolls.  They were usually identifiable once you realized what was going on which is one of the reasons I knew about Russian state sponsored interference long before the news media or Congress figured it out.  (Footnote: I have no idea when the intelligence community (IC) figured it out.  I hope it was before people like me did, but who knows).

Today, however, although the Russians are making heavy use of social media, they are either using a lighter touch, or not quite as obvious as they were, except in a few extreme cases.

My first point is, the Russians dont have to do much.  We already have a lot of right wing nuts without their help, nuts that are made even nuttier by deliberately false news outlets like Fox.

My second point is, before you tell me I am overreacting or being paranoid, may I request that you read for yourself what these people say.  I have spent a very modest amount of time doing so and I can tell you that whatever planet they are on, it isnt the planet that anyone who reads this blog is likely to be on.

You really have to read this for yourself.

Our Future Civil War with the Right

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Apparently it is commonly believed in right wing circles, or some of them, that a civil war is likely in this country as the "Left" attempts to destroy the Trump presidency.  I know this only because I keep seeing references to this meme when I check out various forums, blogs, news aggregators and because of opinions expressed on Facebook.

What they believe seems to be remarkably uniform given the random-ass nature of my exposure to them.  They all seem to believe that (a) the left is going to become irrational and violent, (b) the poor well meaning right wing is going to have to defend themselves and American values and (c) without doubt the right will crush the violent and irrational left in that war (in other words, the Left will all be shot or beaten to death).

Whether or not you or I believe them is probably not germane, we should certainly take them seriously. We all should know by now that the right wing has been corrupted by false news and bizarre beliefs and they could well act on their beliefs.

So it seems logical to me that we should all learn to use the standard weapons in order to defend ourselves. You know, handguns, rifles, rocket propelled grenades, mortars, radios, armored vehicles, basic small unit tactics in urban settings, stockpile weapons, that sort of thing.

But my friends tell me that this is old fashioned thinking and that none of this will be important in a future civil war, because, well, they are so old fashioned. My friends do agree that the Right is likely to become violent, and that civil war is possible, but that there is nothing to worry about.

I think my friends are too smart for their own good and are somewhat delusional.

In a future post I will describe some things I think we should be doing to prepare for this eventuality, which I think has a non-trivial probability of happening.

One Interpretation of Facebook's Loss of $150B in Two Hours

Facebook lost 150 Billion $US in two hours on Wall Street which, we are told, is the single largest loss of a company on Wall Street in history.  Whether or not that is true, it is natural to speculate what was going on in the minds of investors.  Obviously, they were responding in part to the loss of users, and other issues involving privacy which would result in lower revenues from advertising. But what does it really mean?

Well, one thought is that Wall Street had responded well in the past to Facebook's strategy of exploiting its users in the most crude and vulgar ways, working hand in hand with foreign powers to destroy democracy by emphasizing contradictions, spreading right wing propaganda, and assisting polarization.  When, unfortunately, Facebook was identified as a primary agent of Russian destabilization and had to start toning back its worst and most shallow exploitation in order to keep users and avoid regulation, Wall Street naturally and regretfully had to downgrade FB's value. It just wont be like the good old days, at least not for a while. Still Facebook will try to find more subtle ways to exploit the people who have, in the past, trusted them, so all is not lost and Facebook still retains tremendous value.

[Shel Kaplan reminds me that this apparent loss in value is actually just appearance, that FB's long term value has been monotonically increasing for years. So this apparent setback may be nothing more than a tempest in a teapot and a headline created by shallow analysis. So what else is new?]

Trump Supporters and Civil War

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The problem with Trump supporters is that they think that their lies are truth, and no amount of persuasion works because any fact or counterexample is dismissed as fake news. One of the many things I have problems with today is that no one I know or have read has a plan for convincing these people otherwise. IMHO all we can do is put them out of power and then repress them when they resort to violence (they would say the exact same thing about me, I think).

This is the reason I believe we are headed towards a civil war of sorts, or at least a great deal of violence if "civil war" is too grand a term for you.

The Russians and the Republicans

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It has been a puzzle for some time why the Republicans seem so anxious to protect Trump from the Russian investigation. Wh y is Ryan so intent on having Nunes destroy the House investigation even though the DOJ and FBI asked him to remove Nunes? The argument of this editorial is that they were not protecting Trump per se, they were protecting themselves. I think I get it now. I think the editorial is correct (although it may not be the only story). The Republicans may have f*cked themselves splendidly.

When did they know that the NRA money they received had been given to them by various black sources from the Russians? Yes, the Russians financed the campaigns of our right wing, corrupt, democracy hating, russian loving, Republicans representatives. All of them traitors.

When did they know their money came from sources prohibited by law and from an adversary of the USA, one on various prohibited lists? Just how deep does the Republican corruption go?

Call me cynical? No, I have not been anywhere near cynical enough.

https://www.nytimes.com/2018/07/20/opinion/republican-party-national-rifle-association-trump-russia.html

Mysterious Stranger Sends Portal to Another Dimension

My friend Ken Perlin sent me a head mounted display!

Attempt to summarize the current situation

Let me try and put this in my own words. In the most successful intelligence operation(s) in history, russian fsb and gru (a) compromise and own a potential potus, (b) execute influence operations to bring their candidate to power by manipulating social media and our political process, and thus (c) put into power a minority clique whose policies enhance gross income inequality, destroy unions, put two right wing thugs on the supreme court, and destroy the western alliance, (d) but do this in a way that their candidate is revealed as a traitor and must be impeached, thus causing a constitutional crisis and a probable christian nutty boy as president.

Did I get that right?

Did Things Just Change

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The 12 Mueller indictments were announced today.  Did our little national tragedy just change direction?

Although it might have, my initial impression is that it did not.  Why not?  The right wing clique which controls congress and is about to destroy the judiciary could not care less about treason.

They only pretend to care about things like national defense, the deficit, the environment, the principle of regulation vs legislation, etc.  Republicans are proven to be pure devotees of Machiavelli, they say what they must to get power and achieve their goals which have nothing to do with acting in our nation's interest. This has been proven over and over again, that at this point if you dont know it is because you are either not paying attention, dont want to know, or because you are lying.

That Secret Californian Medical Database

It was fun to go to Urgent Care in Santa Barbara and get a prescription for my ADD/ADHD medication.  This was very unusual and very convenient relative to going to the Emergency Room.  It would not have worked in Escondido, by the way.  

Apparently the new rules are that any prescribing doctor now has to check the database before giving a prescription.  What is entertaining about this is that the patient is not permitted to see his medical records that are in this database.

And you thought you lived in a fair and just society?

Violence Next?

One rarely gets to see a coutnry come apart in real time.

Its too bad the election was rigged by the Russians, its too bad the Republicans are traitors, and it is too bad the Democrats are limp.

What I Want From the Democrats

I want my party to say 'Impeach this son of a bitch now", I want someone to say "that election was not legal", I want someone who will call out our Quisling democrats for what they are, I want someone who will say "that fascist is going to be in LA on this date, why doesnt someone go out and make his quiche a little bit less digestible".

In basketball terms, I am looking for a "full court press" here.

The Fraud of the Originalilst

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By now it should be clear to everyone but the most innocent American that Republicans are just interested in power and anything out of their mouth is just a lie designed to excuse their desire to destroy democracy.   Even so, it is valuable to look at their lies one by one and expose them as such.

One of the most odd is the idea that they want justices, especially Supreme Court Justices, to be "originalists", as in, "true to the original intent of the people who wrote the Constitution".  There is something very funny about this, in a sense they may not be lying.

Recall, the original Constitution did not permit women or Black Americans, whether slaves or not, to vote.  So, do you really want an "originalist" Supreme Court Justice?  Well, they do, and in this they may, for once, be telling the truth.

The meaning of the 2000 Coup d'Etat

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I am trying to create a summary of what I think I know about the constitutional crisis we are experiencing in America and, to a lesser degree, what we do about it.  Its a tough subject and I tend to repeat myself.  There were several events that in my opinion foreshadowed the disaster we are now in, and this post describes one of them.

I realize that this could sound like I am being a know - it - all here, but bear with me.  You may not have grown up in the South and that there were certain elements in this affair that were very obvious to any Southerner (whatever position or side they may have taken) but may not be obvious to anyone else.

In November 2000, I protested the right wing, supreme court coup d'etat in Washington.  This is one of the four times in my life (so far) that I bothered to get out on the street and protest something.  It feels pretty silly when you are doing it, unlikely to have an impact, but still worth doing, I guess. It feels good to be doing something and its nice to get out of the house.

I realized just recently that the issues then were not as clear to my peers as they were to me and that there was some misunderstanding which I hope this post will clear up.  The thesis will be that the real issues at stake were only nominally about W. Bush vs. Gore, but issues much more important and tragic. It affects the legitimacy of the American government itself.  This is going to take a while, we are going to have to start from first principles.

For the system of justice to work in this country, we have to believe that,  generally speaking, the judiciary is not deliberately partisan to one party or another.  If that is not the case, it becomes more and more difficult to accept an adverse decision.  Since of course the judiciary is a mixed bag, some partisan, some not, one way of implementing a more fair system is to (a) use a jury of peers, (b) restrict a judge to implementing a decision based on the letter of the law and prior decisions.  That is useful up to a point.

But as we go higher up the chain into the appeals system, the justices must be permitted the ability to look at the law from a higher level and here the spirit of the law and the implications of a decision become more and more relevant.  Finally, when we get to the Supreme Court, they are the final decision about what is constitutional and what is not. They can not pretend, for example, that they are unaware of the history of voting rights in this country in the post Civil War period. They can and do override Congress and the POTUS. With great power comes great responsibility. Decisions of a Supreme Court become the law of the land, one must believe that they are always acting in the nation's interest, especially with controversial issues and controversial decisions. Failure to do so reduces the legitimacy of the whole judicial system, but worse, cripples one of the three arms of the American system of representative government.

But when the Supreme Court awarded the Presidency to W. Bush in 2000, it was clear that they were acting in a partisan fashion, to put the right wing candidate in power.  Whether you believe that or not, the fact is that many Americans at the time believed it, and presumably many Americans believe it today.  Was there an alternative?  Yes, the Supreme Court could have let the process continue, and all the votes could have been counted.  But it gets worse.

The problem was that while Al Gore clearly won the popular vote, the electoral vote was going to be decided by Florida, and Florida had election irregularities.  Those had to be worked out, and they were being worked out.  But it gets worse.

The irregularities came from the use of different voting machines in different parts of the State of Florida, with those in poorer districts getting machines that were more prone to counting error, the so called "hanging chad" problem.  But what you might not realize is that poverty in the South (and many parts of this country) is correlated to race.  Poorer districts may have inferior schools, poorer districts usually have a higher percentage of black citizens.

Therefore, when the Supreme Court terminated the counting it was really saying, we do not want to count the votes of Black Americans because you see, in case this was not obvious, the "hanging chads" were in Black districts and therefore represented Black votes, at least to a large degree.

And that is what they said.  They said, we are going to for partisan reasons, install a right wing President against the will of the people, and deliberately and in a racist fashion, not count the votes of Black Americans.

At that moment, the court could no longer be counted on to act in the nation's interest.  To many of us, it had clearly shown that it was a tool of partisan, right wing, and racist forces in this country.

Trust me when I tell you, no one who grew up in the southern states would have missed this message.  They might have needed to be reminded why some districts had their chads hanging and some did not, but once they realized this, well, the conclusion was obvious.

What astonished and disturbed me, is that the leaders I trusted to represent me were not willing to challenge this decision, and were not willing to say what was obvious.  That the judiciary could no longer be trusted to do their job.  That the constitution had failed.

In my opinion, when history looks at the current constitutional crisis, however it works out, this Supreme Court decision will be recognized as an important event, signaling what was to follow two decades later.

Steve Speer Channels Baphomet

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Baphomet was the demon the inquisition accused the Knights Templar of worshipping.

In this image, we see my friend Steve Speer, NY based artist, prepare for his performance channelling Baphomet.

Another image, and the Wikipedia page, below

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Baphomet

The Disconnect Part 1

I am often told that we must talk to Trump supporters or we will never blah blah blah.  If they have not figured out by now what a disaster he is then nothing you or anyone says will change their mind. I have read literally hundreds of articles and editorials by Trump supporters and perhaps thousands of their comments back when I read the comments to articles in the WaPo among others and I can tell you that I know what I am talking about.

These people fall into several different categories (no, they are not all the same).  Some are racists, some are stupid, etc.  But some, more than a few, have something else going on.  I am going to call it "the disconnect" as in the disconnection from reality.

Here are two examples I stumbled on in one day, probably through Real Clear Politics, the right wing news aggregator.  I submit them to you here as evidence.

The first disconnect from reality was an essay pointing out with total certainty that those who are worried about Global Warming have been wrong about everything, and those who are skeptics have been totally vindicated.  What I find fascinating about this statement and this article is that the person who wrote it is clearly and unambiguously out of their mind.  There are many things we do not know about global warming, and there are many questions and issues going forward about what we can do and what we should do.  But there is one thing that is not in doubt: global warming is happening and mankind (people, humanity, whatever) is the primary cause.  You simply can not be an adult and doubt this any more unless there is something wrong with you.  Sorry if you disagree.  I don’t think it could possibly be debated any longer.

The second disconnect is an article whose title asks “Is Trump the Most Fun President Ever?”  Whoever wrote this right wing crap thinks betraying their country, violating the law, destroying the judiciary, and racism is fun. 

My point here is not that Trump supporters are all racists, or assholes or whatever.  My point is, there is something wrong with them.  I dont mean this in a nice way.

Is it Time for Liberals and Progressives to Arm Themselves?

Now that the right has filled the supreme court with right wing thugs, the time has come for liberals to accept that democracy, the rule of law, and so forth no longer exists in America. There are those who argue that it never existed, but I think their arguments are, frankly, irrelevant. Many Americans *believed* that they lived in a flawed democracy, but now no one could possibly believe that. Its just a dictatorship set up for and by the rich.

People have secured their rights in this country in the past by fighting for them, and I don’t mean that in a symbolic or “representational democracy” sort of way. No I mean standing in a picket line and getting their heads beat up by thugs who are supported by our government. I mean the bonus marchers murdered for protesting their treatment at the hands of the government. I mean riots in the cities when the FBI murdered Martin Luther King (not their first murder). I mean protesting with violence when an innocent man or woman is raped in prison, beaten around the head and shoulders and then “hung himself” in his cell.

Nothing is more American than violence. Nothing is more American than the rich using the government to destroy the rights of the poor in order to get more money.

So is it time for liberals and progressives to arm themselves?  This is a very controversial topic and I do not have the answer to that.  I can argue either point of view all day long and get nowhere.  So lets just say it *may* be time to buy firearms, a great American tradition, and ask a few questions.  That will be reserved for the next post on the topic.

Yes, I know this is an upsetting and controversial topic.  Hey, not my fault.  Stay tuned! Things are just getting interesting.

You Dont Talk to Nazis

A reminder of why it is useless to talk to Nazis.

Infrastructure and Other Annoying Topics

There are several issues here and they are pretty annoying, they all come from poverty. A short version says that I have several different needs and not all fit any one computer. At the end of the day it seems to be something like this: a laptop capable of driving 4K graphics in real time (think going on location to a planetarium dome), a server capable of serious rendering and some machine learning, a display for reviewing images with some color integrity (not much, but some, see Eizo CS2730), a display for previewing 4K real time and doing development, a half dozen or more (or maybe just one) radio/computer controlled drones for testing, with associated infrastructure, a projector for a variety of purposes in public display and projection mapping, decent camera and lens, and the ability to attend perhaps 3-4 (?) conferences or shows, some of them international.

It is going to be tough. I am way out of date on some topics, less so on others. I have tentatively determined to try and work my way through maybe a half dozen subjects, all based around a text or two per subject, probably drawn from the texts used in entry level CS PhD programs at (for example) a place like Stanford CS. The Pharr book on physically based rendering is one such book. At the very least, a book/course on machine learning, presumably fundamental algorithms, and some others. Simulation of cities, society, and late-stage predatory capitalism? Computational biology? Original sin and the Fall from Grace? Modern sensors and explosives in public places? Kayaking? Burning Man?

"A man alone is easy prey", said Clint Eastwood in one of his movies. He went on to say that "a good man always knows his limitations", but in context it is meant as an insult.