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Dear [REDACTED]
Sometimes it takes me time to read the various things I get, but I try to, and I appreciate what you send me. And I am very ignorant of the details of China. I know more about the Tarim Basin or prehistoric Italy than I do about China. Some of this is intentional because it is a vast topic.
I do know about the vast amount of money we dumped on China to help them fight in WW 2 (very little of which went to the Communists as far as I know). I do know about Stillwell and the Flying Tigers. I do know about the time when the numbered air force that Curtis Le May was running in China against the Japanese sent three C-47s filled with medical supplies to Mao but I dont recall what the occasion was. I do know about when Doolittle and his flight of B 25s landed in China and the number of Chinese murdered by the Japanese in retribution. We were not always complete enemies, or maybe we were, but not on the surface of things.
Before I care to hear too much about the other side of the story, I need to know that the Chinese cyberattacks have stopped. I need to know what exactly we are doing educating people who are going to fight a war with us to kill as many Americans as possible since I think that is the most likely scenario in the next 20 years. I need to know that the Americans who deliberately lied to steal the money by sending industry to China without doing anything for the Americans whose lives were destroyed receive justice, which is to say civil asset forfeiture and years of important therapy in an institution run by our federal government. You know, the way a black man would if he stole food to feed his family. And I need to know that whatever is going on with the Uyghurs in China has stopped and people given real help to recover.
I dont think we are blameless in our relationship with China, far from it. But I also dont much care. The above issues are happening now, they need to stop now. After that I am very interested in some of the details.
Saturday, June 20, 2020
Thursday, June 18, 2020
I Have Grown Weary
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I am growing weary of this collapse of democracy, fear of death from unknown viruses, insane conspiracy theories with souvenir hats, presidents compromised by $400 M loans that we can't find out anything about, sort of thing. I want to return to happier days when political corruption meant breaking into an office, not intentionally murdering 100s of thousands (or more) people. We didnt have smartphones, but we were happy.
I am growing weary of this collapse of democracy, fear of death from unknown viruses, insane conspiracy theories with souvenir hats, presidents compromised by $400 M loans that we can't find out anything about, sort of thing. I want to return to happier days when political corruption meant breaking into an office, not intentionally murdering 100s of thousands (or more) people. We didnt have smartphones, but we were happy.
Friday, June 12, 2020
No Hope
I tried to put together a list of things that need to be fixed and I could not continue. It is too awful, it is too stupid. Its a nightmare. I dont know what will happen but I am sure I hate this country and I have no faith in it. I cant breathe.
Friday, June 5, 2020
Zoom Comsec
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Zoom announces that they would not encrypt communications because they want to support law enforcement and I said:
Zoom announces that they would not encrypt communications because they want to support law enforcement and I said:
Michael Wahrman This is pretty weird. Only unsophisticated criminals or conspirators would use a communications channel that was not encrypted unless they really had to. And then they would use some sort of prearranged code that was seemingly innocent but rich in hidden meaning. "Did you ever get your car fixed ?" which really meant "Execute the informer and run for the border ...", etc. Which means to me, who typically has not read this article before commenting (yes, I know, I know) that it is more about spying on citizens than it is about traditional law enforcement. More about sniffing out those who would disagree with the government's always just and righteous policies so that dissidents who might disrupt new order can be removed before they disturb our harmony or our photo opportunities, etc. I refuse to believe that any of this is an innocent mistake at this point. A company of this size and importance who is in the business of enabling communication between individuals and small groups can not possibly have the excuse of being unaware of the implications of their policies in this matter.
Wednesday, June 3, 2020
What is Our Moral Imperative Here?
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The obvious question is whether we should be in Washington protesting? One might want to be there to protest the racism that led to the death of Floyd, or one might want to protest the failure of our system of government to protect its people from an obviously deranged madman.
But in either case you can be sure that those who protest will be on lists, and that they will start killing people (you know, he committed suicide in jail, he tried to resist arrest by running away from drugs planted during a no-knock raid, or maybe he/she will just be asked to serve 10 years in prison in Alabama or whatever they come up with. Nevertheless, what is our moral position here? Should we be there even though we will be punished for protesting the actions of the leader?
The obvious question is whether we should be in Washington protesting? One might want to be there to protest the racism that led to the death of Floyd, or one might want to protest the failure of our system of government to protect its people from an obviously deranged madman.
But in either case you can be sure that those who protest will be on lists, and that they will start killing people (you know, he committed suicide in jail, he tried to resist arrest by running away from drugs planted during a no-knock raid, or maybe he/she will just be asked to serve 10 years in prison in Alabama or whatever they come up with. Nevertheless, what is our moral position here? Should we be there even though we will be punished for protesting the actions of the leader?
Thursday, May 28, 2020
The Events in Minneapolis and 50 Years
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I think that the protesters in Minneapolis should burn the damn city down. Its been 50 years since 1968 and lots of promises were made. Remember. Its the ballot or the bullet.
The government failed us.
Time to change the government.
I think that the protesters in Minneapolis should burn the damn city down. Its been 50 years since 1968 and lots of promises were made. Remember. Its the ballot or the bullet.
The government failed us.
Time to change the government.
Purge of Trump Collaborators
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I am starting to read articles about how to treat the civil servants who cooperated with Trump and his criminal agenda when/if Biden comes to power. One article in particular pleaded for a smarmy forgiveness of those who betrayed their country and committed crimes, as clearly anyone who cooperated with Trump did. They must be investigated and a certain number of the worst offenders prosecuted. The rest of them should just be demoted or fired. Cooperating with Trump is like cooperating with Hitler, and war criminals should not be allowed in our government.
I am starting to read articles about how to treat the civil servants who cooperated with Trump and his criminal agenda when/if Biden comes to power. One article in particular pleaded for a smarmy forgiveness of those who betrayed their country and committed crimes, as clearly anyone who cooperated with Trump did. They must be investigated and a certain number of the worst offenders prosecuted. The rest of them should just be demoted or fired. Cooperating with Trump is like cooperating with Hitler, and war criminals should not be allowed in our government.
The New Interface to Blogger: Why?
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The new interface seems to add nothing new. It just hides some functions and changes things around. There is no point to it. I plan to use the legacy blogger interface as long as they will let me.
The new interface seems to add nothing new. It just hides some functions and changes things around. There is no point to it. I plan to use the legacy blogger interface as long as they will let me.
Sunday, May 24, 2020
Raising My Estimate of the Deaths from COVID-19
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I am raising my highly scientific estimate of American deaths from the coronavirus up from 200K to 288K. The world class logic (dry sarcasm, sorry) that I use for this estimate is as follows.
The WaPo death count for Americans as of this morning is 96,000. But we know the number is low because not all deaths from COVID-19 are officially marked as such for a number of different reasons, some benign, some less so. The estimates for an adjustment factor range from 1.25 to 2.0 although I have seen higher. Lets take a relatively conservative 1.5. That means that we are currently at 144,000 deaths. It seems likely to me, even optimistic, that we can expect an equal number of deaths going forward as we try to manage this thing although of course the future is uncertain. On the one hand we are getting better at testing, and know a lot more about how to treat the disease (although still not doing so great there, we are certainly getting better). On the other hand, it is likely that social distancing really did help (with regional variation) but different areas are opening up now and it would be a miracle if this did not cause local hot spots. A couple of good church meetings and political rallies can infect hundreds of people who will then spread the virus at the very least to their immediate family. The rallies in Michigan of the guys with guns and calling for people to resist the Mark of the Beast came from all over the country, I read, and we know some of them were infected. A vaccine in the next 12 months would be amazing, and I think has a low probability of happening, although it is certainly possible if we get lucky.
So it seems fair to me that if we had some N deaths getting to this point, and since we are nowhere near done, and at best we are at some sort of peak, then it is likely that we would have at least that many taking the curve down assuming that the curve is symmetric, which it may not be. Thus 2 * 144,000 = 288,000. At least.
I have been pretty good at predicting this so far, through my flakey back of the envelope estimates but hopefully I am wrong this time and it will just go away as the Great Leader who Knows All Things predicted.
I am raising my highly scientific estimate of American deaths from the coronavirus up from 200K to 288K. The world class logic (dry sarcasm, sorry) that I use for this estimate is as follows.
The WaPo death count for Americans as of this morning is 96,000. But we know the number is low because not all deaths from COVID-19 are officially marked as such for a number of different reasons, some benign, some less so. The estimates for an adjustment factor range from 1.25 to 2.0 although I have seen higher. Lets take a relatively conservative 1.5. That means that we are currently at 144,000 deaths. It seems likely to me, even optimistic, that we can expect an equal number of deaths going forward as we try to manage this thing although of course the future is uncertain. On the one hand we are getting better at testing, and know a lot more about how to treat the disease (although still not doing so great there, we are certainly getting better). On the other hand, it is likely that social distancing really did help (with regional variation) but different areas are opening up now and it would be a miracle if this did not cause local hot spots. A couple of good church meetings and political rallies can infect hundreds of people who will then spread the virus at the very least to their immediate family. The rallies in Michigan of the guys with guns and calling for people to resist the Mark of the Beast came from all over the country, I read, and we know some of them were infected. A vaccine in the next 12 months would be amazing, and I think has a low probability of happening, although it is certainly possible if we get lucky.
So it seems fair to me that if we had some N deaths getting to this point, and since we are nowhere near done, and at best we are at some sort of peak, then it is likely that we would have at least that many taking the curve down assuming that the curve is symmetric, which it may not be. Thus 2 * 144,000 = 288,000. At least.
I have been pretty good at predicting this so far, through my flakey back of the envelope estimates but hopefully I am wrong this time and it will just go away as the Great Leader who Knows All Things predicted.
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