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I propose in this post that Trump will seize power, legally or illegally, in November. To show this, lets review the various election result scenarios. Check my logic here.
As we all know, it does not matter if the Democrats win the popular vote at the national level. It is only the electoral college that matters and that is normally decided by the popular vote at the state level.
In our first scenario, Trump legitimately wins the electoral college and therefore becomes the next POTUS. He did this in 2016 and I think he has a good chance of doing it in 2024 based on where we are today. But even if he does not win the electoral college he will still be awarded the Presidency as we will see. The general strategy here will be "judicial challenge, appeal, delay and deny".
1. The Republicans have stated that they plan to challenge any state results where they lose. This challenge will be in the form of a lawsuit and if they do not win the lawsuit they will appeal.
2. Not all of the judges at the Federal level are Republican partisans but a substantial number of them are. At the state level, again its a mixed bag, but many of the judges from Red states are partisan Republicans. These justices have shown that they will rule in the Republican's favor no matter what the evidence or the law might call for. This happened most recently when Judge Cannon of Florida stalled and then dismissed the case about the classified documents for the most disingenuous reasons.
3. Therefore a certain percentage of election results are likely to be overturned by Republican judges and awarded to Trump. If a sufficient number of these exist, then the election is thrown to Trump and we are done. This is the "local", e.g. by state, version of what the SCOTUS did in November 2000 to throw the election.
4. But if for any reason this is not sufficient to throw the election to Trump, in other words they can not get enough electoral votes, then the SCOTUS will step in and rule in Trump's favor and Trump will have won the election.
5. We know this will happen, if necessary, because the SCOTUS has already thrown one election to the Republicans in 2000 even though the Democrat, Al Gore, won the popular vote and was on his way to winning the electoral college when the SCOTUS intervened.
6. We also know the SCOTUS will intervene to put Trump in power because of how they handled the immunity matter. In that situation they could have declined to hear the issue of presidential immunity because the Appeals court had already considered the issues and written what many people believe to be a reasonable opinion. Not only did the SCOTUS insist on reconsidering the issue, they delayed doing so until the last possible minute, therefore making it impossible for Trump to be tried for his crimes before the election. And then they ruled that Trump does have immunity for most crimes that he commits as president. There is no justification for this ruling. But there doesnt have to be. Whatever the theoretical issues may be, practically Trump has been given blanket immunity because there is no time for a trial before the election.
7. Therefore the SCOTUS has proven that it will always intercede in the Republican's favor whenever it can get the opportunity. And since any disagreeable result in the election will be appealed to the Supreme Court, they will certainly get the opportunity.
As a footnote, of course within moments of becoming nominal president he will instruct his Attorney General to dismiss the charges against him.
Whether or not this is what happens, I propose to you that what has been described here is reasonable given the people and institutions involved.
Therefore, I think it is fair to say that Trump becomes the next President of the United States and you should make your plans accordingly.
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