draft
So now we wait. Is it the apocalypse or just another example of the dysfunction and stupidity of our government? I have no idea. But presumably if the hammer comes down it comes down in 1-3 weeks. I am guessing we will only know it is bad if we start hearing stories of hospitals filling up. Or not filling up, as the weeks go by. Idiots.
Tuesday, March 31, 2020
Sunday, March 29, 2020
Jim Houston, RIP, Damn It
draft
Jim Houston died unexpectedly last Thursday at the age of 61. Cause of death is still a little uncertain but it is probably from complications from a stroke. He was young, had years more left to him, but he was not taking care of his health and that is a proximate cause.
I will elaborate this post with pictures and so forth as I get them.
At some point there will be a memorial service out here, but in the time being, he will be buried in Pennsylvania.
Jim and I talked perhaps once / week and I am really annoyed.
Jim Houston died unexpectedly last Thursday at the age of 61. Cause of death is still a little uncertain but it is probably from complications from a stroke. He was young, had years more left to him, but he was not taking care of his health and that is a proximate cause.
I will elaborate this post with pictures and so forth as I get them.
At some point there will be a memorial service out here, but in the time being, he will be buried in Pennsylvania.
Jim and I talked perhaps once / week and I am really annoyed.
Sunday, March 22, 2020
Scenario for the Failure of Recent Democratic Coalition
draft
So this is my argument for why the most recent democratic coalition will fragment after the next election.
Lets run through a few scenarios. In all scenarios, assume that there is some percentage of democrats who we might call Sanders/Warren supporters and that Biden is nominated, as he certainly will be. I also assume that the most important factor holding the Democratic coalition together for this next election is fear of a Trump 2nd term. In the first scenario, Trump defeats Biden through a combination of obvious vote repression and russian interference or possibly just obvious judicial interference as we saw in 2000 and really in all elections since then by the failure of the judiciary to correct obvious abuses. The usual finger pointing results, with the so called mainstream democrats blaming the sanders/warren faction for the loss. But the sanders/warren faction will say you guys really didnt give us anything with Biden, just like you didnt with Clinton, and your only hold on us is that you claim we have to stick together to win elections. Well, screw that. And the Democratis party becomes essentially two parties that never talk to each other (through a process I could not begin to predict). It goes without saying that the conversion of this country into a right wing dictatorship will be completed trivially in the second Trump administration, but that is a different topic, and besides, its pretty close already. In scenario two, Biden wins and utterly fails to address the progressive agenda except through obviously insincere and insufficient acts, utterly failing in all regards, including even to reverse trump exec orders. He does do a few things, like maybe something at least superficially to help his major blocks such as unions and the african american vote, but very little to help the sanders/warren crowd. To be fair, since Biden is just a stooge of the right wing neoliberal faction just like Obama, it would be wrong for him to do anything else. But he is certainly better than Trump. But in that scenario the sanders/warren crowd will also say "what the fuck is this", and walk. Again, two democratic parties, unable to unite beyond certain very specific elections, the Democrats refuse to reform (the DNC has been incredibly bad in the last two years) and thats the end of that. The Republicans romp through the next 2-4 presidential elections because their minority, a solid 35-45 percent, always unite behind whatever traitor or idiot they nominate, and they win. This may or may not apply to the individual states, each of which has its own situation.
Now maybe Biden will pull the party together, unlike Clinton who failed utterly at that, because after all at this point even a pretense of democracy will be gone and people may unite because the situation is so dire, but by then it will be too late anyway, probably.
So that is why I think the most recent incarnation of the democratic coalition will pretty much cease to exist after the next election.
As always, I tend to be too optimistic, but whatever.
So this is my argument for why the most recent democratic coalition will fragment after the next election.
Lets run through a few scenarios. In all scenarios, assume that there is some percentage of democrats who we might call Sanders/Warren supporters and that Biden is nominated, as he certainly will be. I also assume that the most important factor holding the Democratic coalition together for this next election is fear of a Trump 2nd term. In the first scenario, Trump defeats Biden through a combination of obvious vote repression and russian interference or possibly just obvious judicial interference as we saw in 2000 and really in all elections since then by the failure of the judiciary to correct obvious abuses. The usual finger pointing results, with the so called mainstream democrats blaming the sanders/warren faction for the loss. But the sanders/warren faction will say you guys really didnt give us anything with Biden, just like you didnt with Clinton, and your only hold on us is that you claim we have to stick together to win elections. Well, screw that. And the Democratis party becomes essentially two parties that never talk to each other (through a process I could not begin to predict). It goes without saying that the conversion of this country into a right wing dictatorship will be completed trivially in the second Trump administration, but that is a different topic, and besides, its pretty close already. In scenario two, Biden wins and utterly fails to address the progressive agenda except through obviously insincere and insufficient acts, utterly failing in all regards, including even to reverse trump exec orders. He does do a few things, like maybe something at least superficially to help his major blocks such as unions and the african american vote, but very little to help the sanders/warren crowd. To be fair, since Biden is just a stooge of the right wing neoliberal faction just like Obama, it would be wrong for him to do anything else. But he is certainly better than Trump. But in that scenario the sanders/warren crowd will also say "what the fuck is this", and walk. Again, two democratic parties, unable to unite beyond certain very specific elections, the Democrats refuse to reform (the DNC has been incredibly bad in the last two years) and thats the end of that. The Republicans romp through the next 2-4 presidential elections because their minority, a solid 35-45 percent, always unite behind whatever traitor or idiot they nominate, and they win. This may or may not apply to the individual states, each of which has its own situation.
Now maybe Biden will pull the party together, unlike Clinton who failed utterly at that, because after all at this point even a pretense of democracy will be gone and people may unite because the situation is so dire, but by then it will be too late anyway, probably.
So that is why I think the most recent incarnation of the democratic coalition will pretty much cease to exist after the next election.
As always, I tend to be too optimistic, but whatever.
Thursday, March 19, 2020
The Long Term Effects of COVID-19 (part 1)
draft
There are many issues regarding COVID-19 and whether it will affect America in the long run. There is a clear answer from American history because there are some very interesting case studies we can review including the Civil War, the Pandemic of 1918, the Depression, World War II and Vietnam. I am going to focus here on the Depression but the others would each have their own story to tell. The Depression is particularly noteworthy because it was a prolonged disaster, it affected everybody, and I have some personal stake in the matter.
The short answer is this: the effects of the Depression were profound for those who lived through it, but tended to go away over time as new people entered the world who had not directly experienced it. Until today, its most notable expression are some fascinating art and infrastructure projects that have remained behind to baffle, uplift and mystify us.
My father told me stories about his time during the depression. It was very hard to relate to, and ultimately I found them colorful but not necessarily applicable to my experience. In that, I was wrong, because when I realized that I had, unwittingly, taken chances with my own economic survival because I thought I was, somehow, exempt, I blamed myself even more. Why? Because I had been warned and I had not listened.
Ultimately, everything about the Depression was ignored by our various right wing governments as unions were attacked and financial institutions and procedures deregulated. The common people may have an excuse for this, but our elites never.
And yet, now and then one sees something like the Hoover Dam, or these fabulous remanants of the WPA and one has to wonder, how is it that our corrupt and crass government(s) went out of their way to sponsor such interesting art and architecture?
There are many issues regarding COVID-19 and whether it will affect America in the long run. There is a clear answer from American history because there are some very interesting case studies we can review including the Civil War, the Pandemic of 1918, the Depression, World War II and Vietnam. I am going to focus here on the Depression but the others would each have their own story to tell. The Depression is particularly noteworthy because it was a prolonged disaster, it affected everybody, and I have some personal stake in the matter.
The short answer is this: the effects of the Depression were profound for those who lived through it, but tended to go away over time as new people entered the world who had not directly experienced it. Until today, its most notable expression are some fascinating art and infrastructure projects that have remained behind to baffle, uplift and mystify us.
My father told me stories about his time during the depression. It was very hard to relate to, and ultimately I found them colorful but not necessarily applicable to my experience. In that, I was wrong, because when I realized that I had, unwittingly, taken chances with my own economic survival because I thought I was, somehow, exempt, I blamed myself even more. Why? Because I had been warned and I had not listened.
Ultimately, everything about the Depression was ignored by our various right wing governments as unions were attacked and financial institutions and procedures deregulated. The common people may have an excuse for this, but our elites never.
And yet, now and then one sees something like the Hoover Dam, or these fabulous remanants of the WPA and one has to wonder, how is it that our corrupt and crass government(s) went out of their way to sponsor such interesting art and architecture?
Some Biden Questions
draft
Some Biden questions:
1. Will he take a fitness test to prove he is physically and mentally competant? (same question for Trump, of course), 2. Where does he stand on prosecuting russians and traitors, 3. Where does he stand on prosecuting Trump and his family? 4. Where does he stand on prosecuting people like Barr, Pruitt, Nunes, etc? 5. Where does he stand on term limits for justices and what will he do to help make that happen? 6. Where does he stand on the electoral college, changing it to see that we are not victimized by it ever again, 7. Where does he stand on changing statute of limitations? 8 As more crimes of the Trump administration come out (torture, destruction of records, etc), where does he stand on prosecuting those people, 9. Where does he stand on prosecuting big tech for their crimes (FB putting Trump in power, for example) and criminalizing behavior like Twitter and hate tweets, etc.)
Of these, I think that #1 would be hard to do because Trump would never agree to be tested, not really. Also #9 is perhaps controversial.
Do we know the answer to any of these questions? Yes, of course I will vote for Biden over Trump, but then who wouldnt?
Some Biden questions:
1. Will he take a fitness test to prove he is physically and mentally competant? (same question for Trump, of course), 2. Where does he stand on prosecuting russians and traitors, 3. Where does he stand on prosecuting Trump and his family? 4. Where does he stand on prosecuting people like Barr, Pruitt, Nunes, etc? 5. Where does he stand on term limits for justices and what will he do to help make that happen? 6. Where does he stand on the electoral college, changing it to see that we are not victimized by it ever again, 7. Where does he stand on changing statute of limitations? 8 As more crimes of the Trump administration come out (torture, destruction of records, etc), where does he stand on prosecuting those people, 9. Where does he stand on prosecuting big tech for their crimes (FB putting Trump in power, for example) and criminalizing behavior like Twitter and hate tweets, etc.)
Of these, I think that #1 would be hard to do because Trump would never agree to be tested, not really. Also #9 is perhaps controversial.
Do we know the answer to any of these questions? Yes, of course I will vote for Biden over Trump, but then who wouldnt?
Sunday, March 15, 2020
Are Interpretations of Silence a Form of Delusion of Reference?
draft
I do perhaps 99 percent of my social interaction via "electronic mediation" whether that be texting, email, Facebook, telephone or instant messaging. Sometimes a friend does not reply and then time passes and he/she does not reply to another message and then months go by and he/she does not respond to another message (email, whatever) that may be particularly chosen to be easy to reply to and relevant, entertaining, whatever to his/her interests.
Obviously I wonder if I am being ghosted. But there are lots of reasons a friend might be doing this beyond the possibility that one is being ghosted, ostracised or rejected. He/she may be going through a particularly intense time in their family or in their career or in other areas of their life. They might be helping a friend or themselves get through a serious illness. They might be travelling or trying to make a deadline that is not happening for them. There are lots of things that may be going on. After all, it is likely that you are not the center of interest in their life even if you are a friend for many years.
But since sometimes you are being ghosted, or at least that has happened to me in the past, and so the question is, is it a delusion of reference to interpret silence as a signal of social rejection? Maybe "delusions of reference" lite?
Delusions of Reference on Wikipedia
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ideas_of_reference_and_delusions_of_reference
[Addendum: the best algorithm I have found for evaluating if you are ghosted, is as follows: You send short emails at a constantly increasing interval: e.g. 1 week, 1 month, 3 months, 6 months, etc. Each email is constructed to be easy to respond to. No major questions that require thought. Then if you still dont hear from him after some long period of time, you assume you are ghosted and try not to worry about it.]
[Addendum: my friend got back to me, so I am not exactly ghosted, and he is probably just very busy. However, it definitely makes me wonder if I have overstepped some bound, so we will see.]
I do perhaps 99 percent of my social interaction via "electronic mediation" whether that be texting, email, Facebook, telephone or instant messaging. Sometimes a friend does not reply and then time passes and he/she does not reply to another message and then months go by and he/she does not respond to another message (email, whatever) that may be particularly chosen to be easy to reply to and relevant, entertaining, whatever to his/her interests.
Obviously I wonder if I am being ghosted. But there are lots of reasons a friend might be doing this beyond the possibility that one is being ghosted, ostracised or rejected. He/she may be going through a particularly intense time in their family or in their career or in other areas of their life. They might be helping a friend or themselves get through a serious illness. They might be travelling or trying to make a deadline that is not happening for them. There are lots of things that may be going on. After all, it is likely that you are not the center of interest in their life even if you are a friend for many years.
But since sometimes you are being ghosted, or at least that has happened to me in the past, and so the question is, is it a delusion of reference to interpret silence as a signal of social rejection? Maybe "delusions of reference" lite?
Delusions of Reference on Wikipedia
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ideas_of_reference_and_delusions_of_reference
[Addendum: the best algorithm I have found for evaluating if you are ghosted, is as follows: You send short emails at a constantly increasing interval: e.g. 1 week, 1 month, 3 months, 6 months, etc. Each email is constructed to be easy to respond to. No major questions that require thought. Then if you still dont hear from him after some long period of time, you assume you are ghosted and try not to worry about it.]
[Addendum: my friend got back to me, so I am not exactly ghosted, and he is probably just very busy. However, it definitely makes me wonder if I have overstepped some bound, so we will see.]
Saturday, March 14, 2020
Michael and the Saxophone of St. Timothy
draft
I know you will find the following story hard to believe but I swear every word of it is true. I am of course oversimplifying since what had occurred is not spelled out well in our sources but I am loathe to elaborate freely. Many decades ago, a young boy tried to learn three musical instruments and failed at all three. The first was a cheap recorder which he had bought at a gift shop and which made plausible pleasant noises but nothing coherent. The second was his brothers 1959 Fender Stratocaster with which he could make chord changes and even some version of the rhythm accompaniment of some songs but it mutilated his fingers and he stopped. But the third was the most frustrating and confusing. It was his brother's clarinet and all he could ever do was to have it make horrible squeaking noises. The young boy was crushed and knew he was a complete failure and withdrew from society and lived in total isolation in the horrible wilderness in N San Diego County. But one day, many decades later, he took a very rare trip to the north and staying at the house of his friend Tom, a house filled with music, he happened to mention to his friend that he could never figure out how to play a reed instrument. One of the sons of the family overheard him and being a trained musician and filled with the spirit of hospitality, undertook, on his own initiative and at his own expense, to show the visitor whom he had never before met or even heard of, how to play a reed instrument, an antique saxophone. To the hermit's astonishment he was able to, with the instruction of his friend's son, immediately make plausible if unrefined saxophone sounds. This so amazed him that his depression and sense of failure dropped visibly from his shoulders like some great winter coat and he was inspired to go out into the world and help many of the poor and downtrodden. His name was Michael and as you may have guessed this is the origin of our famous story that every child knows, "Michael and the Saxophone of St. Timothy". I swear every word of this is true, so help me God.
I know you will find the following story hard to believe but I swear every word of it is true. I am of course oversimplifying since what had occurred is not spelled out well in our sources but I am loathe to elaborate freely. Many decades ago, a young boy tried to learn three musical instruments and failed at all three. The first was a cheap recorder which he had bought at a gift shop and which made plausible pleasant noises but nothing coherent. The second was his brothers 1959 Fender Stratocaster with which he could make chord changes and even some version of the rhythm accompaniment of some songs but it mutilated his fingers and he stopped. But the third was the most frustrating and confusing. It was his brother's clarinet and all he could ever do was to have it make horrible squeaking noises. The young boy was crushed and knew he was a complete failure and withdrew from society and lived in total isolation in the horrible wilderness in N San Diego County. But one day, many decades later, he took a very rare trip to the north and staying at the house of his friend Tom, a house filled with music, he happened to mention to his friend that he could never figure out how to play a reed instrument. One of the sons of the family overheard him and being a trained musician and filled with the spirit of hospitality, undertook, on his own initiative and at his own expense, to show the visitor whom he had never before met or even heard of, how to play a reed instrument, an antique saxophone. To the hermit's astonishment he was able to, with the instruction of his friend's son, immediately make plausible if unrefined saxophone sounds. This so amazed him that his depression and sense of failure dropped visibly from his shoulders like some great winter coat and he was inspired to go out into the world and help many of the poor and downtrodden. His name was Michael and as you may have guessed this is the origin of our famous story that every child knows, "Michael and the Saxophone of St. Timothy". I swear every word of this is true, so help me God.
Betrayal and the Virus
draft
I feel betrayed by our government's failure to use reason and science and experience to help set policy and to be proactive in this pandemic. We have had years to improve our medical system in general, and years to improve our system's response to an unspecified pandemic. We knew that a pandemic was a risk, possibly even an increasing risk, based on history and a number of factors (international air travel being only the most obvious).
But specifically we lost 2.5 months at the beginning of this pandemic when we knew we had a respiratory illness on our hands. Training health care workers in this specialty and possibly increasing the number of respirators in hospitals are two obvious things that could benefit from those 2.5 months. Another, mentioned so many times in the press, is the issue of testing. You need testing to know what is going on or you are flying blind.
The point is, we pay our government and its elites to deal with a number of very difficult problems. Many of those problems include uncertain risk. Classic examples are the risk of nuclear war, the risk of earthquakes, and so forth. We spend a lot of money preparing for these disasters even if we dont know that they will happen for sure and when. To make decisions about these things requires a lot skill, expertise and judgment.
I am going to give an example of this. Los Angeles is not known for planning for the future and yet they have spent a fair amount of money preparing for an event which is sometimes called the 50 year flood and the 100 year flood. These are events where there is so much precipitation that the normal water management capability is overwhelmed. I can point you to many examples of infrastructure hidden in plain site where the city has prepared emergency water diversion infrastructure to accept a huge amount of water overflow until the normal system can process it. And this is Los Angeles where corruption and failure to deal with important known issues is infamous.
I propose to you that our federal government has been given ample warning of various pandemics and could have done a better job preparing for this threat. Thats their job.
I feel betrayed by our government's failure to use reason and science and experience to help set policy and to be proactive in this pandemic. We have had years to improve our medical system in general, and years to improve our system's response to an unspecified pandemic. We knew that a pandemic was a risk, possibly even an increasing risk, based on history and a number of factors (international air travel being only the most obvious).
But specifically we lost 2.5 months at the beginning of this pandemic when we knew we had a respiratory illness on our hands. Training health care workers in this specialty and possibly increasing the number of respirators in hospitals are two obvious things that could benefit from those 2.5 months. Another, mentioned so many times in the press, is the issue of testing. You need testing to know what is going on or you are flying blind.
The point is, we pay our government and its elites to deal with a number of very difficult problems. Many of those problems include uncertain risk. Classic examples are the risk of nuclear war, the risk of earthquakes, and so forth. We spend a lot of money preparing for these disasters even if we dont know that they will happen for sure and when. To make decisions about these things requires a lot skill, expertise and judgment.
I am going to give an example of this. Los Angeles is not known for planning for the future and yet they have spent a fair amount of money preparing for an event which is sometimes called the 50 year flood and the 100 year flood. These are events where there is so much precipitation that the normal water management capability is overwhelmed. I can point you to many examples of infrastructure hidden in plain site where the city has prepared emergency water diversion infrastructure to accept a huge amount of water overflow until the normal system can process it. And this is Los Angeles where corruption and failure to deal with important known issues is infamous.
I propose to you that our federal government has been given ample warning of various pandemics and could have done a better job preparing for this threat. Thats their job.
The Sepulveda Dam in the San Fernando Valley is one of the City (or County?) of LA's emergency water diversion sites.
Saturday, March 7, 2020
So Here It Comes Again
draft
So here it comes again. The Democrats nominate a "moderate" guaranteed to allow no change and support the rich. Their candidate will fail to prosecute criminals on Wall Street, any change to the economy will be minimal. (Editor's note: Michael is just blowing off steam again).
So here it comes again. The Democrats nominate a "moderate" guaranteed to allow no change and support the rich. Their candidate will fail to prosecute criminals on Wall Street, any change to the economy will be minimal. (Editor's note: Michael is just blowing off steam again).
So Its All Over
draft
The country failed and armed revolution is the only solution. Not aware of any argument against this. (Editor's note: Yes he is.) Its too bad. Also I tried as a citizen to find a way to participate but failed. No one had any ideas and I sure didnt. (Editor's note: Yes he did.)
The country failed and armed revolution is the only solution. Not aware of any argument against this. (Editor's note: Yes he is.) Its too bad. Also I tried as a citizen to find a way to participate but failed. No one had any ideas and I sure didnt. (Editor's note: Yes he did.)
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