Scenario for the Failure of Recent Democratic Coalition

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So this is my argument for why the most recent democratic coalition will fragment after the next election.

Lets run through a few scenarios. In all scenarios, assume that there is some percentage of democrats who we might call Sanders/Warren supporters and that Biden is nominated, as he certainly will be. I also assume that the most important factor holding the Democratic coalition together for this next election is fear of a Trump 2nd term. In the first scenario, Trump defeats Biden through a combination of obvious vote repression and russian interference or possibly just obvious judicial interference as we saw in 2000 and really in all elections since then by the failure of the judiciary to correct obvious abuses. The usual finger pointing results, with the so called mainstream democrats blaming the sanders/warren faction for the loss. But the sanders/warren faction will say you guys really didnt give us anything with Biden, just like you didnt with Clinton, and your only hold on us is that you claim we have to stick together to win elections. Well, screw that. And the Democratis party becomes essentially two parties that never talk to each other (through a process I could not begin to predict). It goes without saying that the conversion of this country into a right wing dictatorship will be completed trivially in the second Trump administration, but that is a different topic, and besides, its pretty close already. In scenario two, Biden wins and utterly fails to address the progressive agenda except through obviously insincere and insufficient acts, utterly failing in all regards, including even to reverse trump exec orders. He does do a few things, like maybe something at least superficially to help his major blocks such as unions and the african american vote, but very little to help the sanders/warren crowd. To be fair, since Biden is just a stooge of the right wing neoliberal faction just like Obama, it would be wrong for him to do anything else. But he is certainly better than Trump. But in that scenario the sanders/warren crowd will also say "what the fuck is this", and walk. Again, two democratic parties, unable to unite beyond certain very specific elections, the Democrats refuse to reform (the DNC has been incredibly bad in the last two years) and thats the end of that. The Republicans romp through the next 2-4 presidential elections because their minority, a solid 35-45 percent, always unite behind whatever traitor or idiot they nominate, and they win. This may or may not apply to the individual states, each of which has its own situation.

Now maybe Biden will pull the party together, unlike Clinton who failed utterly at that, because after all at this point even a pretense of democracy will be gone and people may unite because the situation is so dire, but by then it will be too late anyway, probably.

So that is why I think the most recent incarnation of the democratic coalition will pretty much cease to exist after the next election.

As always, I tend to be too optimistic, but whatever.