Many
of my friends on Facebook and otherwise are convinced that Trump will
be impeached within 18 months or so. Well I hate to pour cold water
on my friends hopes, but I am not of that opinion and I want to
explain why.
Let
me say before I begin that I have been very wrong about many things
this election season (I thought Hillary would win easily), so take
all this with even extra salt.
The
argument goes like this. What people think of as “impeachment”
is really a two step process. The first step is that the House of
Representatives has to have a majority vote for impeachment, and then
the Senate has to vote to convict by a 2/3rds margin.
But
what is an impeachable offense? Well, practically it is what the
House of Representatives says it is. But the Republicans control the
House of Representatives, so why would they vote to impeach Trump?
Well, they might if their base insisted that they impeach him,
presumably because Trump's behavior was so egregious.
Although
the Republican base does not exactly equal Trump's voter base, they
are pretty close, and Trump's base seems to be immune to pretty much
everything that the Democrats and my friends find so offensive. Even
worse, this base seems to even be delighted at anything that annoys
(I almost said “pisses off” but I restrained myself) my so-called
“liberal” friends.
So
one of three things has to happen. Any of the three is sufficient,
but how likely are they?
First,
the Democrats could win a majority of the House, that would do for
impeachment. Then to convict, they would have to have 2/3rds of the
Senate or, of course, get a number of Republicans to vote with them
in either case. Well, I think it is unlikely that the Democrats will
win either house, and if they do, by definition that will not be for
at least two years (the next mid-term election).
Second,
Trump could do something so egregious that the Republican congressman
and/or their base are do disgusted that they *have* to impeach him.
What you and I think is egregious does not matter, it is what they
think is egregious. I dont know what this would be, maybe a few
“bunga bunga” parties?
Third,
Trump could do something so dangerous or show such psychotic behavior
that they have to remove him from the presidency and commit him.
This would probably not use the impeachment process but would
probably use the 25 th Amendment:
Section 4 of the XXV Amendment:
Section 4 of the XXV Amendment:
Whenever the Vice President and a majority of either the principal officers of the executive departments or of such other body as Congress may by law provide, transmit to the President pro tempore of the Senate and the Speaker of the House of Representatives their written declaration that the President is unable to discharge the powers and duties of his office, the Vice President shall immediately assume the powers and duties of the office as Acting President.Thereafter, when the President transmits to the President pro tempore of the Senate and the Speaker of the House of Representatives his written declaration that no inability exists, he shall resume the powers and duties of his office unless the Vice President and a majority of either the principal officers of the executive department or of such other body as Congress may by law provide, transmit within four days to the President pro tempore of the Senate and the Speaker of the House of Representatives their written declaration that the President is unable to discharge the powers and duties of his office. Thereupon Congress shall decide the issue, assembling within forty-eight hours for that purpose if not in session. If the Congress, within twenty-one days after receipt of the latter written declaration, or, if Congress is not in session, within twenty-one days after Congress is required to assemble, determines by two-thirds vote of both Houses that the President is unable to discharge the powers and duties of his office, the Vice President shall continue to discharge the same as Acting President; otherwise, the President shall resume the powers and duties of his office.
See the Wikipedia Page on the 25th Amendment
Now,
while this is possible, it is not something to count on.
In
short, while my friends may wish Trump to go away, I don't believe
that he will. So, it seems to me that my friends must redouble their efforts to win back
Congress if they want to turn this country around. And that is a
totally different problem.
No comments:
Post a Comment