Why I Doubt Trump Will Be Impeached

Many of my friends on Facebook and otherwise are convinced that Trump will be impeached within 18 months or so. Well I hate to pour cold water on my friends hopes, but I am not of that opinion and I want to explain why.

Let me say before I begin that I have been very wrong about many things this election season (I thought Hillary would win easily), so take all this with even extra salt.

The argument goes like this. What people think of as “impeachment” is really a two step process. The first step is that the House of Representatives has to have a majority vote for impeachment, and then the Senate has to vote to convict by a 2/3rds margin.

But what is an impeachable offense? Well, practically it is what the House of Representatives says it is. But the Republicans control the House of Representatives, so why would they vote to impeach Trump? Well, they might if their base insisted that they impeach him, presumably because Trump's behavior was so egregious.

Although the Republican base does not exactly equal Trump's voter base, they are pretty close, and Trump's base seems to be immune to pretty much everything that the Democrats and my friends find so offensive. Even worse, this base seems to even be delighted at anything that annoys (I almost said “pisses off” but I restrained myself) my so-called “liberal” friends.

So one of three things has to happen. Any of the three is sufficient, but how likely are they?

First, the Democrats could win a majority of the House, that would do for impeachment. Then to convict, they would have to have 2/3rds of the Senate or, of course, get a number of Republicans to vote with them in either case. Well, I think it is unlikely that the Democrats will win either house, and if they do, by definition that will not be for at least two years (the next mid-term election).

Second, Trump could do something so egregious that the Republican congressman and/or their base are do disgusted that they *have* to impeach him. What you and I think is egregious does not matter, it is what they think is egregious. I dont know what this would be, maybe a few “bunga bunga” parties?

Third, Trump could do something so dangerous or show such psychotic behavior that they have to remove him from the presidency and commit him. This would probably not use the impeachment process but would probably use the 25 th Amendment:

Section 4 of the XXV Amendment:

Whenever the Vice President and a majority of either the principal officers of the executive departments or of such other body as Congress may by law provide, transmit to the President pro tempore of the Senate and the Speaker of the House of Representatives their written declaration that the President is unable to discharge the powers and duties of his office, the Vice President shall immediately assume the powers and duties of the office as Acting President.Thereafter, when the President transmits to the President pro tempore of the Senate and the Speaker of the House of Representatives his written declaration that no inability exists, he shall resume the powers and duties of his office unless the Vice President and a majority of either the principal officers of the executive department or of such other body as Congress may by law provide, transmit within four days to the President pro tempore of the Senate and the Speaker of the House of Representatives their written declaration that the President is unable to discharge the powers and duties of his office. Thereupon Congress shall decide the issue, assembling within forty-eight hours for that purpose if not in session. If the Congress, within twenty-one days after receipt of the latter written declaration, or, if Congress is not in session, within twenty-one days after Congress is required to assemble, determines by two-thirds vote of both Houses that the President is unable to discharge the powers and duties of his office, the Vice President shall continue to discharge the same as Acting President; otherwise, the President shall resume the powers and duties of his office.

See the Wikipedia Page on the 25th Amendment

Now, while this is possible, it is not something to count on.

In short, while my friends may wish Trump to go away, I don't believe that he will. So, it seems to me that my friends must redouble their efforts to win back Congress if they want to turn this country around. And that is a totally different problem.