draft
[This is a transcript of a discussion with a friend about whether or not there is a kickback to Trump from the many billion dollar sale of F-35s to the United Arab Emirate]
I apologize for not giving you better info on the kickback thing, I was being deliberately lazy and annoying. I have no hard evidence but my pathetic self-education includes studying the work of Holmes & Doyle (Hounds of the Baskervilles, etc) which means that we can use deduction and in this case the deduction chain is straightforward even if the money path is not. First some obvious comments on the arms business and the vast business of money laundering, then the more interesting things we know about the Trump administration and the various motivations here. This is going to be a little pedantic because it is much more work to keep it concise. Feel free to correct me at any point but keep in mind I read a lot of spy novels so I know something here.
1. The "corporate culture" of the arms business, in particular the arms business to 3rd world countries, is rife with corruption of which some form of unofficial transfer of the vast amount of moneys involved is the most common. Its one of the simplest ways to extract money from an official budget for personal use, and it is, to the best of my knowledge, very common. 2. The details of how the money gets transferred are arcane, have many variations, necessarily evolve with evolving law enforcement, and so forth. I have no idea what percentage of the money laundering business is kickbacks for arms deals, probably only a small percentage (10%? Less?) Some countries and institutions depend on this sort of thing although I suspect drugs and tax fraud are a larger part of this business. 3. But we would not expect to see a lump sum up front although we might depending on the level of trust. We might expect to see a series of payments at each step of the deal that go to various anonymous accounts in cooperative banks, where these accounts are for shell companies which transfer the money in relatively small amounts to other accounts at other banks in other countries, etc, until they end up making investments in something that in fact pays down the debt in another account at, for example, Deutsche Bank. Now lets move from this to Trump and our foreign policy. 4. There is no evidence that Trump gives a fuck about American foreign policy nor that he understands what he is dealing with here. By supporting Israel illegal settlements and bribing various countries to support Israel, he could easily bring down governments and/or destroy Israel, or cause a war that spins out of control. He may not intend to do this, but there is no evidence he cares. 5. Quid pro quo is the very heart of many, perhaps all, negotiations; its just that with Trump we expect to see it to be a blunt instrument. But it would be perfectly reasonable to expect that if a country wants our most advanced defense technologies that they could not ordinarily get, offering to recognize Israel in return for F-35s is the sort of thing that Trump might easily do, although in a normal administration it might not happen because of risks (see below). 6. In the past, money has always been a part of the deal, and we are talking about Saudi princes, Lockheed executives, American Congressman and Senators, and so forth. Rarely, if ever, is the President *directly* involved although indirectly they probably are. The classic example was Nixon and the Committee to Reelect the President who apparently received excellent cash donations from various organizations like the mafia and others. Or there is Reagan who would break the law right and left and then lie about it. Iran/Contra? No problem. I doubt, however, that the president's net wealth has been directly involved but I am confident that in the past other elected representatives have definitely received money. 7. But its Trump and we know that he has some amount of debt coming due in a few years even if there are many questions about exactly how much, to whom, etc. You regularly see estimates at $400M but I think that it is probably more. This is real estate in the hospitality business and that business is on its ass due to the pandemic. Even if that improves (and it might, it should) financing Trump is going to be a very negative thing for many institutions, not least because Trump is without doubt cavalier about honoring debt. (You know the joke about how you say "fuck you" in Hollywood). So where does he get the money from. 8. If a few percent came off the top of this deal and ended up eventually at Deutsche bank through various intermediaries, that would be I think a very logical thing to do from Trumps point of view. He certainly would not hesitate because of laws, ethics, or the interests of his country.
9. Finally, lets add that Trump does seem to like to take care of his friends in Russia and thinks he is being VERY smart about it while Russia plays him for a fool, which he is. I doubt he has a clue what is really going on most of the time and he certainly does not believe what our intelligence community tells him. And so, Trump would ignore warnings that our most advanced defense technologies would be at risk if the destination country could not be relied on to keep it secret and that is why we only send that technology (at first) to very few countries such as Israel, Japan, Germany, the UK, etc, and even with them we usually water it down. Trump wouldnt give a hoot.
So in conclusion, Watson, it would be very logical to expect that there is a quid pro quo going on here, that the cards are not on the table which is normal, that our national security is not being protected, and that Trump would benefit financially in a substantial way. Of course, this would have to be proven but this kind of analysis is not going to be unique to me, I am not that smart or that original, sadly.
