Dystopian View of War with Russia and other Matters

 

I think that there are some scenarios we can generate about foreign affairs, current wars, future wars.  This is not about predicting what will happen, but I am pretty comfortable that things that are mentioned below are at least one plausible interpretation of the facts at hand.  Assigning a probability to any of these is hard, your judgment is advised.  

 

I think we can agree, btw, that I should be working on things more relevant to my life than this.  But whatever, its what I think about and its fun to put this on the blog to be reviewed in a decade or two. The topics include whether or not we are in or about to be in a war with Russia, whether we are or are about to be in a war with Iran, and a few predictions or suggestions about resolving the conflict in Taiwan without fighting a war.  

First, what is Europe (NATO) going to do about the rogue bully on their borders?   The sanctions against Russia and the support we are giving to Ukraine have not restrained Russia.  They could not care less about the rules of war, about the starvation of large parts of the world by interfering with shipping in the Black Sea.  Whenever a Russian senior official opens their mouth they say the most insane things.  People need to start taking notice.  The destruction of the Kakhovka dam proves they are indifferent to environmental disaster and human tragedy.  They threaten the use of nuclear weapons and no one doubts that they are ready to turn the Zaporizhia nuclear plant into another Chernobyl.  No one likes to be threatened and Russia has turned into a worst case threat out of a cold war fantasy. 

Second, we are on the cusp of a war with Iran.  They are within weeks of having nuclear weapons, our ability to restrain them has failed although it did probably slow them down a bit.  They routinely threaten to destroy their enemies with nuclear weapons and they are the primary sponsor of violence in the middle east.  Once they get nuclear weapons, can other nations in the region live with this?  Saudi Arabia, Egypt and Turkey have the resources to have nuclear weapons but we have restrained them.  Unlike Israel, who has nuclear weapons but is not irrational, Iran could and threatens to use them.   Not acting is a tacit approval in whatever Iran does.  This was coming anyway but Trump made it much worse, of course.

Third, China will not stop until it incorporates Taiwan into their autocratic dictatorship.  They have the money, the manpower, the technology, the armed forces and the will to do this.  They have a home court advantage.  We cant stop them, the most we could do is make it expensive.  This is a war that we can not win, even if we have a credible presence in the area.  So this suggests two things if we want to help Taiwan.  Recent events have proven that only those nations with nuclear weapons can defend themselves.  Therefore we could give them weapons and the systems to deliver them.  The second approach is to evacuate anyone who wants to leave and take their technology with them.  Put them somewhere like an enclave on the coast in Oregon, for example.  Then destroy their technology and leave a scorched earth.  The Taiwan semiconductor industry is strategic for us and for them.

It doesnt matter what I think will happen with Russia, Iran or China/Taiwan.  These situations are real and I hope that people are taking these situations seriously.