Assumptions Are the Mother of All Fuckups

draft

These problems of "decline and fall" are too big to reduce to emails, because a complete discussion of any topic would be exhausting to write and tiresome to read. My doom and gloom has some unstated assumptions that might make the conclusions seem more reasonable or at least understandable.

First, we are always talking about probabilities not certainties. But that is very important for planning because a 10% chance of destroying the world is something to pay attention to even if it doesnt happen. Second, all models are wrong but some models are useful. Third, the notion of "enlightened self interest" and the "rational actor" theories of economic and political decision making does not have a great track record. Therefore arguments based on these assumptions do not have a lot of credibility with me unless substantiated by other data. Fourth, in the debate between the "conspiracy" vs "screw up" explanations of events its important to remember that the correct answer is usually "both". Fifth, although both people and organizations can change, in general they dont, and past behavior can usefully be used to predict the immediate and distant future of behavior. This can be stated biblically "As it is at the beginning, so it is at the end". Sixth, trust must be earned, and the higher the stakes, the more it must be earned or controlled for. Seventh, I expect to be able to learn from my mistakes. Eighth, with great power comes great responsibility but there is a reason for this, and that is because you really can make things better or worse in many (but not all) cases. Ninth, the past isnt over, it isnt even past yet. Tenth, every great power has declined but stupidity can always make things worse.
 

These assumptions, when applied to the last 20 years, leads to some predictions and they are not good.